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本週的 Bankless 時事通訊討論了以太坊在當前牛市週期中的前景。一些投資者認為 ETH 的表現將遜於比特幣或勉強擊敗比特幣,這一觀點受到 Coinbase L2 鏈上 Memecoin 和 SocialFi 崛起的影響。然而,作者認為以太坊仍然是一項強大的投資,凸顯了其生態系統的成長和創新潛力。
Will This Cycle Skip Ethereum?
這個週期會跳過以太坊嗎?
Introduction
介紹
As the cryptocurrency market enters a potential new bull cycle, investors are speculating on the prospects of various digital assets, particularly Ethereum (ETH). Some experts believe that this cycle may present a unique divergence from previous trends, with ETH experiencing muted performance compared to Bitcoin (BTC).
隨著加密貨幣市場進入潛在的新牛市週期,投資者正在猜測各種數位資產的前景,特別是以太坊(ETH)。一些專家認為,這個週期可能會與先前的趨勢出現獨特的背離,與比特幣 (BTC) 相比,以太坊的表現疲軟。
Historical Context
歷史背景
In previous bull cycles, ETH has typically outperformed BTC, driven by factors such as increased demand for decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem. However, this cycle has been characterized by a different market dynamic, with BTC regaining dominance and ETH facing increasing competition from Layer 2 blockchains and alternative smart contract platforms.
在先前的多頭週期中,受去中心化金融(DeFi)、不可替代代幣(NFT)需求增加以及以太坊生態系統擴張等因素的推動,ETH 的表現通常優於 BTC。然而,這一周期的特點是不同的市場動態,BTC 重新佔據主導地位,而 ETH 面臨來自 Layer 2 區塊鏈和替代智能合約平台的日益激烈的競爭。
Factors Contributing to the Skip Thesis
導致跳過論文的因素
1. Macroeconomic Uncertainties:
1. 宏觀經濟的不確定性:
The global economy is facing significant challenges, including inflation, geopolitical tensions, and slowing economic growth. These factors could lead investors to favor more conservative assets, such as BTC, which is perceived as a store of value.
全球經濟正面臨重大挑戰,包括通貨膨脹、地緣政治緊張局勢和經濟成長放緩。這些因素可能會導致投資人青睞更保守的資產,例如被視為價值儲存手段的比特幣。
2. Layer 2 Scaling Solutions:
2. 二層擴容解決方案:
Layer 2 solutions, such as Polygon, Optimism, and Arbitrum, have emerged as viable alternatives to Ethereum, offering faster transaction speeds and lower costs. These solutions could siphon off development activity and user demand from Ethereum, limiting its growth potential.
Polygon、Optimism 和 Arbitrum 等 Layer 2 解決方案已成為以太坊的可行替代方案,提供更快的交易速度和更低的成本。這些解決方案可能會吸走以太坊的開發活動和用戶需求,從而限制其成長潛力。
3. Alternative Smart Contract Platforms:
3.替代智能合約平台:
Projects like Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot have made significant strides in offering scalable and cost-effective smart contract platforms. These platforms could attract developers and users away from Ethereum, further diluting its market share.
Solana、Avalanche 和 Polkadot 等專案在提供可擴展且具成本效益的智慧合約平台方面取得了重大進展。這些平台可能會吸引開發者和使用者遠離以太坊,進一步稀釋其市場份額。
4. Regulatory Scrutiny:
4. 監理審查:
Ethereum is facing increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the United States. This could lead to restrictions or limitations on the development and deployment of DeFi and other blockchain applications on Ethereum, hindering its growth.
以太坊正面臨越來越嚴格的監管審查,尤其是在美國。這可能會導致以太坊上 DeFi 和其他區塊鏈應用程式的開發和部署受到限製或限制,從而阻礙其成長。
5. Technical Challenges:
5. 技術挑戰:
Ethereum is still facing technical challenges, including high gas fees and network congestion. These issues could impede the scalability and usability of the platform, making it less attractive to users and developers.
以太坊仍面臨技術挑戰,包括高額汽油費和網路擁塞。這些問題可能會阻礙平台的可擴展性和可用性,從而降低對使用者和開發人員的吸引力。
Outlook and Implications
展望與影響
While the "skip thesis" suggests muted performance for ETH in this cycle, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable. Ethereum remains a dominant force in the blockchain ecosystem, with a strong community and a vibrant developer ecosystem.
雖然「跳過論點」表明 ETH 在本週期中表現平淡,但值得注意的是,加密貨幣市場高度波動且不可預測。以太坊仍然是區塊鏈生態系統的主導力量,擁有強大的社群和充滿活力的開發者生態系統。
Investors should carefully consider the factors discussed above and conduct their own research before making investment decisions. It is prudent to diversify portfolios and invest in a range of digital assets, including both BTC and ETH, to mitigate potential risks and maximize returns.
投資者在做出投資決定之前應仔細考慮上述因素並進行自己的研究。謹慎的做法是實現投資組合多元化,投資於包括 BTC 和 ETH 在內的一系列數位資產,以降低潛在風險並最大化回報。
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