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比特幣和以太坊最近表現出波動性下降,價格走勢溫和。由於預期 SEC 推遲批准以太坊 ETF 現貨以及針對 BTC 的空頭部位增加,看跌情緒盛行。然而,即將在香港推出現貨 ETF 可能會增加機構資金流入,從而扭轉看跌情緒。
Bitcoin and Ethereum Slump Amidst Bearish Market Sentiment
市場情緒看跌,比特幣和以太坊暴跌
The cryptocurrency market has entered a period of relative calm after weeks of sharp price fluctuations, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experiencing a decline in volatility. The lull in market activity has raised concerns about a potential storm brewing on the horizon.
經過數週的價格劇烈波動後,加密貨幣市場進入了相對平靜的時期,比特幣(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)的波動性有所下降。市場活動的平靜引發了人們對即將來臨的潛在風暴的擔憂。
A Period of Stagnation
停滯期
Over the past week, Bitcoin trading has cooled considerably, with volatility dropping significantly. Trading volumes have contracted from 70% to 50%, indicating a consolidation phase in the market.
過去一周,比特幣交易大幅降溫,波動性大幅下降。交易量從 70% 縮減至 50%,表示市場進入整合階段。
While consolidation often presents an opportunity for traders to accumulate long positions, the bearish sentiment prevailing across the market has deterred many from doing so. This pessimism stems primarily from the anticipated delays in the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF).
雖然盤整通常為交易者提供了累積多頭部位的機會,但整個市場普遍存在的看跌情緒卻阻止了許多人這樣做。這種悲觀情緒主要源自於美國證券交易委員會(SEC)批准現貨以太坊交易所交易基金(ETF)的預期延遲。
Negative Outlook for ETH
ETH 前景悲觀
The negative skew of ETH risk reversals, which currently stands at -13% in the front-month contract, reflects the market's preference for put options, indicating a greater concern about potential price declines than excitement about price surges.
ETH 風險逆轉的負偏度目前在近月合約中為-13%,反映了市場對看跌期權的偏好,表明對潛在價格下跌的擔憂大於對價格飆升的興奮。
Similarly, for Bitcoin, the percentage of short positions taken against BTC has risen from 49% to 54% in the past 24 hours, suggesting a cautious approach among traders.
同樣,對於比特幣而言,在過去 24 小時內,BTC 空頭部位比例從 49% 上升至 54%,顯示交易者採取謹慎態度。
However, a glimmer of hope emerged this week with the announcement of the launch of spot ETFs for both BTC and ETH in Hong Kong. This could serve as a gateway for institutional capital inflows from Asia, potentially turning the tide in favor of these cryptocurrencies.
然而,本週隨著香港宣布推出 BTC 和 ETH 現貨 ETF,一線希望出現了。這可以作為亞洲機構資本流入的門戶,有可能扭轉局勢,有利於這些加密貨幣。
Tale of Two Coins
兩枚硬幣的故事
The recent price movements of BTC and ETH have been closely correlated, with both experiencing corrections that have amplified the bearish sentiment. Additionally, the velocity of trading for both cryptocurrencies has declined, indicating a decrease in the frequency of transactions.
BTC 和 ETH 最近的價格走勢密切相關,兩者都經歷了調整,放大了看跌情緒。此外,兩種加密貨幣的交易速度均有所下降,顯示交易頻率有所下降。
Despite the bearish outlook, profitability remains relatively high for most addresses holding BTC and ETH. The MVRV ratio, which measures the profitability of holding an asset, has increased for both cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the Long/Short difference has surged, indicating an increase in the number of long-term holders of BTC.
儘管前景悲觀,但大多數持有 BTC 和 ETH 的地址的盈利能力仍然相對較高。兩種加密貨幣的 MVRV 比率(衡量持有資產的獲利能力)均增加。此外,多空差額激增,顯示比特幣的長期持有者數量增加。
Conclusion
結論
The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a period of uncertainty, with Bitcoin and Ethereum facing bearish sentiment due to potential delays in the approval of spot ETFs and concerns about price declines. However, the upcoming launch of spot ETFs in Hong Kong and the increase in long-term holders provide a glimmer of hope for a potential reversal of the current trend.
加密貨幣市場目前正處於一個不確定時期,由於現貨 ETF 批准可能延遲以及對價格下跌的擔憂,比特幣和以太坊面臨看跌情緒。然而,即將在香港推出現貨ETF以及長期持有者的增加為當前趨勢的潛在逆轉帶來了一線希望。
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