Dogecoin (DOGE) Eyes a Critical Technical Milestone as It Pushes to Secure a Monthly Close Above the $0.20 Psychological Barrier

Dogecoin [DOGE] appeared to be nearing a critical technical milestone as it pushed to secure a monthly close above the $0.20 psychological barrier at the time of writing.

At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.1813, following a modest 0.33% hike over the last 24 hours. Now, although the token faces some resistance on the charts, its price structure revealed strong bullish momentum in comparison to previous months. Notably, sustained closes above major resistance levels often trigger further rallies.

As such, Dogecoin’s persistent breakout attempts are continuing to reinforce optimism among investors anticipating a major upward move.

Source: X/Ali

‘Subdued’ network activity

Despite Dogecoin’s ongoing price efforts, on-chain activity remains relatively muted compared to historic levels. In fact, Santiment’s data revealed that daily active addresses stood at 62,588, while transaction counts hovered around 61,411.

Although these figures show slight improvements in recent days, they remain significantly lower than the major network spikes recorded in late 2024. As such, the subdued network activity could mean that broader retail participation is still lagging behind.

Source: Santiment

At press time, Dogecoin’s MVRV ratio had a value of 27.25%, offering important insights into holder behavior. Here, a moderate profitability level indicates that on average, investors are still comfortably in profit but not in an overheated state that typically triggers mass selling.

Historically, extremely high MVRV values above 50% correlate with sharp corrections. As such, the moderate readings might ease immediate concerns about aggressive profit-taking.

Supply dynamics – Stock-to-flow spike points to increasing scarcity

Another encouraging development seemed to emerge from Dogecoin's supply-side metrics, with the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio jumping sharply to 64.00.

The S2F model measures the ratio between circulating supply and new issuance, meaning the higher the value, the scarcer the asset becomes relative to inflation. A sharp rise in S2F generally means improving scarcity fundamentals, which historically aligns with long-term price appreciation.

Source: Santiment

Sentiment within the derivatives market provided additional confirmation of Dogecoin’s improving setup. Data from Binance showed that 71.33% of DOGEUSDT perpetual accounts were positioned long, compared to only 28.67% on the short side. This translated to a long/short ratio of 2.49, highlighting traders’ growing confidence in further price hikes.

However, while the dominant bullish bias was positive, it also implied that any sudden shifts in sentiment could amplify volatility.

A setup for a potential major breakout

Dogecoin’s technical and on-chain metrics collectively strengthened its outlook for a bullish continuation.

On the technical front, sustained closures above the $0.20 mark could invite a continuation towards the subsequent resistance zone between $0.30 and $0.40. A breach of this zone might open the door for a rally towards Dogecoin’s 52-week high of $0.74, reached in August 2023.

On the other hand, failing to maintain the $0.20 level could lower the chances of a major trend reversal. In this scenario, Dogecoin might slide back towards the support at $0.15, potentially leading to a deeper retracement.

On the on-chain side, despite the low network engagement, the moderate profitability and heightened scarcity suggest that the price trends might continue in the same direction.

Moreover, the dominant long positioning in the derivatives market provides further evidence of traders’ anticipation for bullish continuation.

This collective technical and on-chain setup indicates that securing a decisive monthly close above $0.20 could be the catalyst that propels Dogecoin towards reclaiming higher levels.