Bitcoin Enters Critical "Decision Point" as It Trades Between Major Supply Clusters

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached what analysts describe as a critical ‘decision point’ as it trades between major supply clusters that could determine its next significant move.

The cryptocurrency is testing key support levels after pulling back from recent highs.

This analysis combines insights from on-chain analyst Checkmate and CryptoQuant analyst Maartun.

As Checkmate highlighted, Bitcoin is positioned in relation to its UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). This metric showcases the price ranges at which various coins in the circulating supply last moved, highlighting substantial supply walls both above and below current price levels.

The URPD shows two massive supply clusters around Bitcoin’s recent trading range. At the time of the analysis, BTC was positioned directly between these supply walls.

This positioning creates what Checkmate termed a ‘decision point’ because any substantial move would affect the profit-loss status of numerous addresses. The lower supply wall potentially offers support as investors who purchased there might defend their break-even point.

Bitcoin is flirting with the Shoprt Term Holder Cost Basis from above 👀

STH Realized Price: $93,364pic.twitter.com/hQl1V9izWE— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) May 5, 2025

Similarly, the upper supply cluster could function as resistance, with holders possibly selling to recover their initial investment.

Since the analysis was published, Bitcoin has experienced a small decline. The asset now leans toward the green supply zone on the chart.

This area may provide sufficient support to prevent further drops, considering the large amount of supply purchased within this range.

Another crucial metric in the current analysis is the short-term holder Realized Price. According to Maartun, this level sits at $93,364.

This figure represents the average cost basis for Bitcoin holders who purchased within the past 155 days. Historically, this level has served as a boundary between bullish and bearish market trends.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above this critical support level. Maintaining position above the short-term holder Realized Price would be considered a positive signal by many technical analysts.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $94,345, showing a decrease of 1.5% over the past 24 hours.

The cryptocurrency began a downward correction after failing to hold above the $96,500 zone. It experienced a decline below several support levels, including $96,200 and $95,500.

As the bears pushed even lower, Bitcoin broke below $94,500, forming a new low at $93,570. While there has been an attempt to recover above $94,000, it seems that the sellers returned around the $95,000 level.

Now, Bitcoin is trading below both $95,000 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, highlighting short-term bearish momentum. On the upside, the next resistance appears near $94,750, which also coincides with a bearish trend line visible on 4-hour charts.

If the price fails to break above this resistance zone, we might observe another drop in the BTC price. The next support levels to watch are $93,750, followed by the $93,500 area.

The market participants are closely following the next decisive move. As Checkmate noted, “all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively.”

The next few days may prove critical for determining whether bulls can regain control or if bears will push prices toward lower support levels.