XRP Price Could Skyrocket If Its Spot ETFs Capture Only a Fraction of Bitcoin ETF Inflows

The cryptocurrency market has been buzzing with anticipation for the potential approval of spot crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States, especially after the successful launch of Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs earlier this year.

Among the coins that could be massively affected by ETF approval is Ripple’s XRP, which has already seen its price increase tenfold in 2024.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, there is an 80% chance of at least one XRP ETF being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2024. This probability has risen from 68% just a week ago.

If we consider that Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately $39 billion in net inflows since their introduction in January 2024, according to Sosovalue, then the approval of XRP ETFs could lead to even more significant price implications.

Assuming that XRP ETFs manage to capture just 15% to 30% of the Bitcoin ETF’s net inflows, we could witness a dramatic increase in XRP’s price.

For instance, if we take 15% of the $39 billion in Bitcoin ETF net inflows, it would amount to $5.85 billion flowing into XRP-focused funds. Applying a modest inflow-to-valuation multiplier of 100x, this $5.85 billion could boost XRP’s market cap by $585 billion.

Notably, when added to the current market cap of around $130 billion, the new total valuation would reach $715 billion. Meanwhile, XRP’s circulating supply currently stands at 58.44 billion tokens. Factoring in this figure would place the price at about $12.23 per token. That represents a 450% surge from its current trading price of $2.22.

However, doubling that share to 30% of Bitcoin ETF inflows would have even more dramatic implications. This higher percentage would result in $11.7 billion in net capital moving into XRP ETFs. This would lead to a $1.17 trillion increase in XRP’s total valuation by applying the same 100x multiplier.

When combined with the existing $130 billion market cap, XRP’s valuation could climb to about $1.3 trillion. This new valuation yields an XRP price of $22.2, considering the supply of 58.44 billion tokens. Such an increase would mark a nearly 900% appreciation from today’s price.

While these projections rely on assumptions, the growing interest in XRP ETF products supports the idea that institutional investment could flood the market once approvals are granted. For instance, Bitwise CIO confirmed they are witnessing large demand for an XRP ETF.

Several firms have already applied for approval to launch a spot XRP ETF. Among them are Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton.

Among them, Franklin Templeton recently experienced a delay when the U.S. SEC announced on April 29 that it was extending the review period for the company’s spot XRP ETF proposal.

Crucially, this delay comes as the federal judge in the Ripple vs. SEC case is set to rule on summary judgment motions filed by both parties. A ruling on these motions could have significant implications for the approval of an XRP ETF.

Moreover, several firms, including Bitnominal, Coinbase, and CME Group have introduced CFTC-regulated XRP futures, further paving the way for the launch of an XRP ETF.