比特币减半炒作是否言过其实？

Is the Bitcoin Halving Hype Overblown?

The recent Bitcoin volatility is a clear sign that traders are speculating on the upcoming halving, but this is not uncommon, according to Beam CEO Andy Bromberg.

"In the months leading up to the event, the narrative around the price heading up tends to drive things," he explained. "Then, right before the halving, everyone has this crisis of faith and you get into this whipsaw volatility."

And that's where Bromberg believes the industry is right now. In just the past week, Bitcoin soared past $73,000 to set a new all-time high and then plunged below $62,000.

As of this writing, the Bitcoin price is just shy of $65,000 after losing 3% in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko.

What is the Bitcoin Halving?

As its name suggests, the Bitcoin halving cuts the amount of new Bitcoin rewarded to miners in half. It has occurred three times so far since Bitcoin was first launched in January 2009.

At the time of writing, it appears that the next halving will land on April 27, according to NiceHash. However, since the halving is scheduled to occur after a certain number of blocks have been mined on the Bitcoin network, it's difficult to pin down.

It's the same reason why the arrival time on a GPS will fluctuate throughout a journey. It's constantly being recalculated with the assumption that you (or your bike or car) will keep going at your current speed for the rest of the trip. But of course, that's not always true or feasible.

At the beginning of last week, in the run-up to Bitcoin setting a new all-time high and amid significantly higher Bitcoin volume, the NiceHash countdown showed that the halving would occur as early as April 15.

The Bitcoin Halving and Price

Historically, when the amount of new Bitcoin entering the market is cut in half roughly every four years, it has kicked off a price rally.

Leading up to the first halving on November 28, 2012, the price of Bitcoin saw a substantial increase. Since Bitcoin had first launched in January 2009, it had gone from being worth less than a penny to $12.

Then, in the months following the halving, the price continued to rise, eventually surpassing $100 for the first time in April 2013. This was due in part to growing awareness and adoption of Bitcoin.

In the months leading up to the second halving on July 9, 2016, the BTC price was relatively stable. But immediately after the halving, the price of Bitcoin experienced a gradual but steady increase, culminating in a dramatic surge to set an all-time high of $19,783.06 in December 2017.

Just before the third halving on May 11, 2020, the price experienced volatility and a significant dip. The COVID-19 pandemic had led to social distancing orders, and by March 2020 the uncertainty was taking a toll on the economy. Post-halving, the price began to recover and saw a significant rally starting in late 2020 into 2021, when it soared to $69,000 and set a new all-time high.

Is This Halving Different?

However, Bromberg said there are a few factors that make this halving different from the others.

"It's unlikely the demand [for Bitcoin] is about to change," he said. "Especially with ETFs. Now, you have this whole new demand driver. We've been looking at these inflows the last few days, and it's been substantial."

Last week alone, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bought up almost 36,000 BTC, according to CoinGlass. This week things have been more subdued, with four straight days of net outflows since a flash crash on Monday.

There have been predictions that the halving and continued demand from investors driven by the ETFs could create a liquidity crisis, but Bromberg is not convinced. Especially since many of the ETF investors are not necessarily long-term, dogmatic holders. In his experience, they buy and sell shares as it suits their portfolio.

"I think broadly the Bitcoin markets, especially at this point, and especially with ETFs, and futures—these markets are deep and liquid," he said. "There's definitely not like a liquidity crisis situation."