Bitcoin (BTC) Eyes All-Time High as BTC Market Resurgence Positions It for a Potential Breakout

Bitcoin’s resurgence in April has positioned it for a potential breakout toward its all-time high—provided one key technical level continues to hold. That’s the core takeaway from the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, which offers a data-rich breakdown of BTC’s recent market dynamics and the underlying structural forces that may guide its trajectory as macroeconomic pressures persist.

The report, dated May 5, 2025, reveals that Bitcoin closed April with a 14.08% monthly gain. This outperformance, exceeding both the historical average return of 13% for the month of April and the median return of 7.3% over the past 11 years, underscores the strength of Bitcoin’s rebound.

The significance of this recovery becomes even more apparent when considering the market’s early-April volatility. From its all-time high of $109,590, Bitcoin price faced a rapid correction, plunging 32% to reach lows of $74,501. This marked the steepest correction of the current bull market cycle, sparking concerns of a deeper structural breakdown in the market.

However, despite the pessimistic implications and persistent macroeconomic headwinds—including trade tensions and a looming debt ceiling crisis—Bitcoin managed to rally sharply. This recovery saw Bitcoin test the $97,900 level, marking a critical technical threshold.

“Holding above this range is not just a matter of bullish sentiment; it denotes a structural shift in the market,” the report explains. A successful consolidation above $95,000 would signal a return to bullish territory and could pave the way for a retest of the $109,590 all-time high. Conversely, failure to maintain support above this critical zone “could turn the region into resistance once more, setting the stage for a continuation of the correction.”

This analysis underscores the importance of technical levels in understanding Bitcoin’s current market trends.

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: A Key Indicator

Further insight into the market structure is provided by the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, which Bitfinex calculates to be $93,340. This metric, representing the average acquisition price of coins held by recent market entrants over the past three months, has historically served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish phases.

“The ability of BTC to reclaim and now consolidate within this zone is an encouraging sign,” the report adds.

According to Bitfinex, sustained price action above the STH cost basis would likely “convert this range into a new support base, reinforcing bullish sentiment and setting the stage for a continuation of the market's upward journey.”

The report cautions that the significance of this level cannot be overstated. If BTC slides below the STH cost basis, it could introduce a "pivotal shift" in the market structure, potentially turning the $95,000 level into resistance once more.

This outcome would have implications for the continuation of the correction, which had seen Bitcoin decline 32% from its all-time high.

The next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this reclaim is the foundation of a new leg higher—or merely local highs in the context of a continuing correction.

Why BTC Looks Strong

Beyond price levels and technical patterns, the report delves into on-chain data, offering a window into the conviction of long-term network participants. Miner reserves, a bellwether of internal market confidence, have remained strikingly stable.

From December 2024 to May 2025, reserves saw a minimal increase from 1,180,315 BTC to 1,180,674 BTC. Such stability, Bitfinex argues, “strongly suggests a deliberate holding strategy despite the strong outperformance of BTC over the past five months.”

Miners, despite needing to liquidate some holdings to cover operational costs, have largely retained their Bitcoin, suggesting longer-term bullish expectations.

This miner behavior gains further validation from the Puell Multiple, a widely observed profitability metric used to assess the relative strength of Bitcoin mining revenue.

The indicator, which measures daily miner revenue compared to the 365-day average, remains well below the 2.0 threshold that is typically observed during major sell-offs and local market tops in Bitcoin.

“Miners, by nature and necessity, are some of the most disciplined participants in the ecosystem,” Bitfinex notes. Their decision to continue holding through BTC’s recent 32% recovery lends further credence to the thesis that the current rally is not merely reactive, but structurally supported.

In essence, the Bitfinex Alpha report positions the current BTC market as one defined by critical thresholds and cautious optimism. While the recovery from the April lows has been rapid and technically impressive, all eyes are now on the $93,340 to $95,000