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æå·é貚ã®ãã¥ãŒã¹èšäº
ð2025å¹Žã®æãäºæ³ãããæå·ã€ãã³ã
2025/04/06 22:04
ãããã³ã€ã³ã®ååãæ»ã£ãŠããŸãããä»åã¯ããããŸã§ã§æãéèŠãªãã®ã«ãªãå¯èœæ§ããããŸãã 2025幎åé ã«äºå®ãããŠããŸã
The year 2025 promises a momentous event in the cryptocurrency realmâthe Bitcoin halving. Scheduled for early next year, this quadrennial event has historically sparked wild bull markets, transforming the entire crypto landscape.
2025幎ã¯ãæå·é貚ã®é åãã€ãŸããããã³ã€ã³ã®ååã§éèŠãªåºæ¥äºãçŽæããŸããæ¥å¹Žåãã«äºå®ãããŠãããã®åè§åœ¢ã®ã€ãã³ãã¯ãæŽå²çã«éçã®åŒ·æ°åžå ŽãåŒãèµ·ãããæå·ã®æ¯èŠ³å šäœãå€ããŸããã
But this time, the scene is set differently. Institutional adoption of digital assets has reached record levels with ETFs, hedge funds, and corporations making significant inroads.
ããããä»åã¯ãã·ãŒã³ã®èšå®ãç°ãªããŸããããžã¿ã«è³ç£ã®å¶åºŠçæ¡çšã¯ãETFããããžãã¡ã³ããããã³äŒæ¥ãéèŠãªäŸµå ¥ãããŠããããšã§èšé²çãªã¬ãã«ã«éããŸããã
Plus, altcoins have matured with real-world use cases in DeFi, AI, and RWAs. Finally, macroeconomic conditions like rate cuts and dollar weakness could supercharge crypto prices.
ããã«ãAltcoinsã¯ãDEFIãAIãããã³RWASã®å®éã®ãŠãŒã¹ã±ãŒã¹ã§æçããŠããŸããæåŸã«ãéå©åæžããã«ã®è¡°åŒ±ãªã©ã®ãã¯ãçµæžçæ¡ä»¶ã¯ãæå·äŸ¡æ Œãè¶ ããå¯èœæ§ããããŸãã
In this guide, weâll explore how the 2025 halving differs from past cycles, Bitcoinâs potential price trajectory, and why altcoins could deliver 10x-50x returns.
ãã®ã¬ã€ãã§ã¯ã2025幎ã®ååãéå»ã®ãµã€ã¯ã«ããããã³ã€ã³ã®æœåšçãªäŸ¡æ Œè»éãšã©ã®ããã«ç°ãªããããããŠAltcoinsã10åãã50åã®ãªã¿ãŒã³ãæäŸã§ããçç±ãæ¢ããŸãã
Weâll also discuss smart portfolio strategies for each phase of the bull market.
ãŸãã匷æ°åžå Žã®å段éã®ã¹ããŒãããŒããã©ãªãªæŠç¥ã«ã€ããŠã説æããŸãã
Letâs begin.
å§ããŸãããã
Bitcoin Halving 101: Why It Matters
ãããã³ã€ã³ããŒãã³ã°101ïŒãªãéèŠãªã®ã
Every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), Bitcoinâs block reward is cut in half.
210,000ãããã¯ããšïŒçŽ4幎ïŒããããã³ã€ã³ã®ãããã¯å ±é ¬ã¯ååã«åæžãããŸãã
Currently, miners receive 3.125 BTC per block. After the 2025 halving, this will halve to 1.5625 BTC.
çŸåšãé±å€«ã¯ãããã¯ããã3.125 BTCãåãåããŸãã 2025幎ã®åååŸãããã¯1.5625 BTCã«ååã«ãªããŸãã
Key Implications:
éèŠãªæå³ïŒ
* Supply Shock: Daily Bitcoin issuance will drop from around 900 BTC to 450 BTC.
*äŸçµŠã·ã§ãã¯ïŒæ¯æ¥ã®ãããã³ã€ã³çºè¡ã¯ãçŽ900 btcãã450 BTCã«äœäžããŸãã
* Inflation Rate: Bitcoinâs yearly inflation rate will fall below goldâs at roughly 0.4% (goldâs is about 1.6%).
*ã€ã³ãã¬çïŒãããã³ã€ã³ã®å¹Žéã€ã³ãã¬çã¯ãçŽ0.4ïŒ ã§éã®éãäžåããŸãïŒéã¯çŽ1.6ïŒ ïŒã
* Miner Adaptability: Miners will need to upgrade efficiency or rely on a higher BTC price to stay profitable.
*ãã€ããŒã®é©å¿æ§ïŒãã€ããŒã¯ãå¹çãåäžãããããããé«ãBTCäŸ¡æ Œã«äŸåããŠåçæ§ãç¶æããå¿ èŠããããŸãã
Historical Cycles:
æŽå²çãªãµã€ã¯ã«ïŒ
| Halving Year | Pre-Halving BTC Price | Post-Halving Peak | Gain | Altcoin Season Start |
|ååã®å¹Ž| BTCåã®BTCäŸ¡æ Œ|ããŒãã³ã°åŸã®ããŒã¯|ã²ã€ã³| Altcoinã·ãŒãºã³éå§|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2012 | $12 | $1,150 | 95x | 6 months post-halving |
| 2012 | $ 12 | $ 1,150 | 95x |ããŒãã³ã°åŸ6ã¶æ|
| 2016 | $650 | $20,000 | 30x | 9 months post-halving |
| 2016 | $ 650 | $ 20,000 | 30x |ããŒãã³ã°åŸ9ãæ|
| 2020 | $8,500 | $69,000 | 8x | 12 months post-halving |
| 2020 | $ 8,500 | $ 69,000 | 8x |ããŒãã³ã°åŸ12ãæ|
2025 Projections:
2025äºæž¬ïŒ
If history repeats, we can expect to see BTC peak 12-18 months after the halving.
æŽå²ãç¹°ãè¿ããããšãåååŸ12ã18ãæåŸã«BTCããŒã¯ãèŠãããããšãæåŸ ã§ããŸãã
* Conservative Target: $150K-$250K by mid-2024.
*ä¿å®çãªç®æšïŒ2024幎åã°ãŸã§ã«$ 150K- $ 250Kã
* Bullish Scenario: BTC could reach $300K+ with sustained ETF inflows and hyperbitcoinization.
*匷æ°ã®ã·ããªãªïŒBTCã¯ãæç¶çãªETFæµå ¥ãšãã€ããŒãããã³ã€ã³åã«ããã30äžãã«ä»¥äžã«éããå¯èœæ§ããããŸãã
The Altcoin Opportunity: 3 Reasons 2025 Could Be Bigger Than 2021
Altcoinã®æ©äŒïŒ3ã€ã®çç±2025ã2021幎ãã倧ãããªãå¯èœæ§ããããŸã
1. Bitcoin Dominance Flips to Altcoins
1ããããã³ã€ã³ã®æ¯é ã¯ã¢ã«ãã³ã€ã³ã«å転ããŸã
After the halving, BTC dominance usually peaks and then falls as capital flows into altcoins.
åååŸãBTCã®æ¯é ã¯éåžžããŒã¯ã«éãããã®åŸãè³æ¬ãã¢ã«ãã³ã€ã³ã«æµã蟌ããšèœã¡ãŸãã
Key Signal: Keep an eye on BTC dominance dropping below the 40% level.
ããŒä¿¡å·ïŒBTCã®åªäœæ§ã40ïŒ ã¬ãã«ãäžåãããšã«æ³šæããŠãã ããã
2. Ethereum ETF Effect
2ãEthereum ETF广
A spot ETH ETF approval (likely in 2025) could trigger an altcoin liquidity tsunami.
ã¹ãããETH ETFã®æ¿èªïŒ2025幎ã«ã¯ããããïŒããAltcoinã®æµåæ§æŽ¥æ³¢ãåŒãèµ·ããå¯èœæ§ããããŸãã
Institutions will likely diversify into SOL, XRP, ADA, and emerging sectors.
æ©é¢ã¯ãããããSOLãXRPãADAãããã³æ°èã»ã¯ã¿ãŒã«å€æ§åããã§ãããã
3. New Narratives = New Millionaires
3ãæ°ããç©èª=æ°ããåäžé·è
* AI Tokens (FET, AGIX, RNDR): Artificial intelligence integration with blockchain technology.
* AIããŒã¯ã³ïŒFETãAGIXãRNDRïŒïŒãããã¯ãã§ãŒã³ãã¯ãããžãŒãšã®äººå·¥ç¥èœã®çµ±åã
* DePIN (Helium (HNT), Internet of Things (IOTX Tokens): Decentralized physical infrastructure tokens.
* DepinïŒHeliumïŒHNTïŒãThingsã®ã€ã³ã¿ãŒãããïŒIOTXããŒã¯ã³ïŒïŒåæ£åãããç©çã€ã³ãã©ã¹ãã©ã¯ãã£ããŒã¯ã³ã
* RWA (Ondo Finance (ONDO), AnChain.ai (TOKEN): Tokenized real-world assets.
* RWAïŒOndo FinanceïŒOndoïŒãAnchain.aiïŒããŒã¯ã³ïŒïŒããŒã¯ã³åãããå®äžçè³ç£ã
* Memecoins: Retail FOMO plays with viral potential.
* MemeCoinsïŒå°å£²FOMOã¯ãŠã€ã«ã¹ã®å¯èœæ§ãç§ããŠããŸãã
Smart Portfolio Strategy for Each Phase
åãã§ãŒãºã®ã¹ããŒãããŒããã©ãªãªæŠç¥
Phase 1: Pre-Halving (Now â Q1 2025)
ãã§ãŒãº1ïŒããŒãã³ã°åïŒä» - 2025幎第1ååæïŒ
* 60% Bitcoin: The safest halving play.
* 60ïŒ ãããã³ã€ã³ïŒæãå®å šãªååã®ãã¬ã€ã
* 30% Blue-Chip Alts: ETH, SOL, BNB.
* 30ïŒ Blue-chip AltïŒETHãSOLãBNBã
* 10% High-Risk/High-Reward: Low-cap gems with strong narratives.
* 10ïŒ ãã€ãªã¹ã¯/é«å ±é ¬ïŒåŒ·åãªç©èªãæã€ããŒãã£ããã®å®ç³ã
Phase 2: Halving to Peak (Q2 2025 â Q3 2026)
ãã§ãŒãº2ïŒããŒã¯ãžã®ååïŒQ2 2025 - Q3 2026ïŒ
* Take 20%-30% BTC profits at $100K, $150K, $200K to stagger exits.
* BTCã®20ïŒ ãã30ïŒ ã®å©çã1äžãã«ã15äžãã«ã200kãã«ã§æ®åœ±ããŠãã¹ãã£ãã¬ãŒã®ååšãè¡ããŸãã
* Rotate into altcoins: Focus on sectors that are outperforming.
* Altcoinsã«å転ïŒã¢ãŠãããã©ãŒã ã®ã»ã¯ã¿ãŒã«çŠç¹ãåœãŠãŸãã
* Stagger exits on altcoins at 2x, 5x, 10x gains to secure some profits.
* Staggerã¯ã2åã5åã10åã®å©çã§Altcoinsã«å»ããå©çã確ä¿ããŸãã
Phase 3: Market Top (Euphoria Signs)
ãã§ãŒãº3ïŒããŒã±ãããããïŒé¶é æã®æšèïŒ
* When: Crypto dominates mainstream news, memecoins 10x, and BTC âto the moonâ tweets flood social media.
*ææïŒCryptoãäž»æµã®ãã¥ãŒã¹ãMemeCoins 10Xãããã³BTCãTo The Moonããæ¯é ããŠããŸãã
* Action: Secure remaining profits in stable
*ã¢ã¯ã·ã§ã³ïŒå®å®ããæ®ãã®å©çã確ä¿ããŸã
å 責äºé :info@kdj.com
æäŸãããæ å ±ã¯ååŒã«é¢ããã¢ããã€ã¹ã§ã¯ãããŸããã kdj.com ã¯ããã®èšäºã§æäŸãããæ å ±ã«åºã¥ããŠè¡ãããæè³ã«å¯ŸããŠäžåã®è²¬ä»»ãè² ããŸãããæå·é貚ã¯å€åæ§ãé«ããããååãªèª¿æ»ãè¡ã£ãäžã§æ éã«æè³ããããšã匷ããå§ãããŸãã
ãã®ãŠã§ããµã€ãã§äœ¿çšãããŠããã³ã³ãã³ããèäœæš©ã䟵害ããŠãããšæãããå Žåã¯ãçŽã¡ã«åœç€Ÿ (info@kdj.com) ãŸã§ãé£çµ¡ãã ãããéããã«åé€ãããŠããã ããŸãã
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