On May 1, 2025, the XRP to USD weekly chart shows the formation of a falling wedge pattern

May 1, 2025 - On the weekly time frame, the price action of XRP is unfolding within a falling wedge pattern, which is typically recognized as a bullish chart formation.

A falling wedge arises when the price action is contained between two downward-sloping trendlines that gradually converge, creating a wedge-like shape. This pattern usually signals a breakout in the direction of the wedge apex, which, in a standard scenario, occurs after the lower time frames highlight divergence and the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) offers support.

In the case of XRP, the cryptocurrency is forming the wedge pattern with lower highs and lower lows, as expected. Furthermore, the volume is decreasing during this consolidation, which aligns with the behavior observed in wedge patterns. The 50-week EMA is also located below the pattern, offering dynamic support for the price.

As for the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it currently stands at 53.20. This level is in the neutral territory for the RSI, which measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, and it coincides with the pattern's compression. Such a scenario usually builds pressure for a breakout, which, if it occurs, could propel XRP to $4.32, a 95% increase from the wedge's base.

This technical setup suggests that XRP is in a strong position as long as it remains above the lower wedge boundary and the 50-week EMA. A move lower would yield a lower time frame opportunity for a new long entry if the 50-week EMA provides support.

Several market analysts remain confident in XRP’s long-term potential, despite its current consolidation phase. They point to technical setups that suggest the altcoin may be building momentum for a major breakout.

Well-known trader Dark Defender said that the ongoing price movement fits within a larger Elliott Wave structure. According to him, the current correction does not mark weakness but instead represents a natural pause within a broader bullish cycle. As per the Elliott Wave theory—which tracks investor psychology in waves of market optimism and pessimism—XRP may still have more upside left. He claimed XRP will “continue its climb to the top” once the correction ends.

Another analyst, Allincrypto, also issued a bullish projection. He believes XRP is preparing for a breakout from the falling wedge formation visible on the higher timeframes. Based on his chart analysis, he expects the token to reach $19.27 if the pattern completes successfully. His target suggests a steep upward move, driven by technical momentum and pattern symmetry rather than short-term hype.

Earlier this week, Bloomberg's senior ETF analysts raised the chances of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) getting approved in 2025 to 85%. Their prediction is now more likely than not, especially after a recent leadership change at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

This figure marks a clear jump from the 65% approval odds reported by the analysts just over two months ago. They now foresee a greater probability of one or more XRP ETFs being approved by the SEC.

The applicants for a spot XRP ETF include Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and Franklin Templeton. All of these firms have filed proposals for such an ETF, which are now being reviewed by the SEC. Notably, on April 29, the SEC decided to delay its decision on Franklin Templeton's application, pushing the next review deadline to June 17.

Meanwhile, the prediction market Polymarket shows a similar shift in sentiment. As of press time, traders on the platform place the odds of XRP ETF approval by Dec. 31 at 80%. That figure has surged by 17% in just one week, as it stood at 63% on April 23.

This sharp swing signals growing investor confidence in a positive outcome. If approved, these ETFs could attract institutional capital and strengthen market demand. However, the final timeline remains uncertain as the calculus could change if the SEC ultimately rejects the applications.