Justin Trudeau Resignation Rumors Swirl as Polymarket Bettors Predict 82% Chance of Departure by Friday

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing increasing pressure to resign, with bettors on Polymarket predicting that he will step down within the next week.

According to the latest odds, Trudeau has an 82% chance of leaving office by Friday, January 10. Another prediction gives him a 72% chance of doing so by Wednesday, January 8, while the chances of him stepping down today, January 6, stand at 26%.

Several reports from local media also suggest that Trudeau’s departure might occur sooner. The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail have published articles indicating that the prime minister could leave office between January 6 and January 8.

The Globe and Mail adds that while the exact date of Trudeau’s exit is still unknown, it will likely come before the national caucus meeting on Wednesday.

However, the majority of bettors on Polymarket still seem to be leaning toward January 10.

Trudeau’s possible resignation comes amid declining approval for both him and his party, with the Conservatives being projected to win a parliamentary majority.

If Trudeau were to resign, his party would be left without a permanent leader, as polls indicate that the Liberals are on track for a significant loss to the opposition Conservatives.

Despite the rumors, Trudeau appears to be staying focused on his work. He posted on his X page yesterday that nearly a million Canadian families experienced reduced child care fees, saving parents thousands through the national child care program, and that efforts to bring costs down will continue this year.

“A big win from 2024: Nearly a million Canadian families saw their child care fees come down. Parents saved thousands of dollars, thanks to our national child care program. In 2025, we’re going to keep bringing those costs down. Let’s go,” Trudeau’s post reads.

The prime minister also announced in December that for the next two months, certain items in Canada, including prepared foods, snacks, and restaurant meals, will be exempt from taxes, providing Canadians with a temporary tax break.

Meanwhile, Polymarket gained significant attention in political forecasting last year due to high-profile contracts linked to the US General Elections.

This contributed to the platform’s growth in active users and volume, generating more than $9 billion in trading volume across multiple contracts.

Its growth also drew the attention of the FBI and led to a DOJ inquiry into potential US user involvement, specifically focusing on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.

The platform, which is licensed in the British Virgin Islands, has also faced scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over its decentralized betting activities.

However, despite the regulatory attention and recent legal challenges, Polymarket continues to operate and offer a wide range of political contracts for users to bet on.

The platform’s predictions have often aligned with the eventual outcomes, making it a valuable tool for political enthusiasts and bettors alike.