Galaxy Research tempers expectations regarding institutional adoption of bitcoin in 2025. Despite rumors, the U.S. government is not expected to purchase additional bitcoin in 2025, according to a report published by Galaxy Research on December 27. However, the government may consider new strategies regarding its existing reserves.
The U.S. government currently holds 183,850 BTC (around $17.36 billion) across 36 known addresses. According to Alex Thorn, director of research at Galaxy Research, U.S. authorities would prefer to capitalize on their current holdings rather than making new massive purchases.
This position contrasts with the Bitcoin Act 2024, proposed by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, which suggested acquiring 200,000 BTC annually over five years. This ambitious plan, aimed at building a reserve of one million bitcoins over two decades, therefore seems unlikely in the short term.
However, Galaxy Research's perspectives suggest that some departments and government agencies may begin to consider an “expanded bitcoin reserve policy”, paving the way for a potential longer-term strategic evolution.
The attitude of the U.S. government could significantly influence the position of other nations regarding bitcoin. In Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently admitted to waiting to see the evolution of the U.S. position before making a statement on a possible bitcoin reserve policy.
According to “JW”, another analyst at Galaxy, up to five companies from the Nasdaq 100 and five nation-states could nonetheless add bitcoin to their balance sheets or sovereign funds in 2025.
This forecast echoes the statements of Changpeng Zhao, former CEO of Binance, who anticipates bitcoin reserve adoption by several countries, with China potentially in the race.
In summary, the wait-and-see position of the U.S. government in 2025 does not preclude a significant evolution of the crypto landscape on a global scale. As suggested by the recent initiative of the State of Ohio with its HB 703 bill, institutional adoption of Bitcoin could first manifest at the state and corporate level before extending to central governments.
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