Escaping the Bull Market Top and Learning Effectiveness

In recent days, there haven't been many hot topics in the market. It seems that everyone's attention is more focused on the changes in macro factors, such as the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies and the U.S. earnings season. Of course, there are also some relevant developments in the crypto space, such as:

It is said that Coinbase has received a subpoena from the U.S. CFTC, requesting customer data related to Polymarket.

Grayscale announced that it is considering some digital assets for future investment products, including KAS, APT, ARB, TIA, HBAR, etc. (Don't just copy homework).

Messari plans to lay off about 15% of its workforce.

The U.S. Department of Justice is set to sue the operators of the cryptocurrency mixing services Blender and Sinbad.

Pendle will initiate a $6.1 million airdrop to vePENDLE holders.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will establish its first subcommittee dedicated to cryptocurrency.

Circle donated $1 million USDC to Trump's inauguration committee and noted that the committee is willing to accept donations in stablecoins.

Standard Chartered will provide cryptocurrency custody services in the EU.

The Russian Ministry of Finance will sell Bitcoin assets seized from the Infraud hacker group (not much, just 1,032 coins).

Nvidia's Jensen Huang's speech caused all quantum computing stocks to plummet (quantum computing will not be realized in the next 20 years).

Animecoin released the ANIME token economics, and HYPE stakers can receive airdrops.

Since Binance announced the launch of ZEREBRO (an AI Meme on Solana) perps, the coin has been on a continuous decline for over ten days (what else can be said, even the retail investors are crying).

… It feels like there are endless news every day, and how to quickly find useful information from the massive amount of news is a problem that needs constant improvement. Personally, I actually do not recommend spending too much time every day scrolling through news; I prefer to read more in-depth long articles or document-like materials. Of course, if you don't have that much time to read, you can also consider using ChatGPT or GroK2 to quickly extract the core content of documents.

Having talked about some information I've noticed in the past few days, let's continue to briefly discuss the topics of bull market top escaping and learning effectiveness.

1. About the issue of escaping the bull market top

A few days ago (January 10), Boss Heng in the group held a themed sharing session on escaping the bull market top and bottom fishing in the bear market. After the sharing, he also posted a summary document of over 7,000 words in the group and compiled more than 40 commonly used top escaping/bottom fishing indicators in Excel. It can be seen that Boss Heng's research on this matter is quite in-depth and thoughtful, which is worth learning from each of us. As shown in the figure below.

Here, I will briefly select a few of Boss Heng's viewpoints for everyone (some private numbers have been hidden):

The market cannot have most people making money; in fact, every round is about finding new retail investors to take over. Most of the main funds will only build positions at the very bottom and distribute to the fortunate ones at the peak.

The biggest good news and the craziest times are the moments of the most frenzied distribution.

Opportunities to make big money only exist in the liquidity-dry bear market. The times when you least want to leave the bull market is when you should leave the most.

When everyone lacks confidence, you should believe in hope. When everyone is full of confidence, you should doubt the risks.

Recently, many people have been discussing the topic of escaping the bull market top, but I have noticed that many people's approaches or thoughts on social media still only look at the price. For example, some KOLs tell you not to sell and to wait until it rises above $150,000 to sell, and some even confidently tell you that Bitcoin will definitely rise to $1 million this year. Then you obediently listen and go all in when Bitcoin is at $100,000, deciding to hold on and wait for wealth, but do you understand if those KOLs actually have coins? Or can their average holding cost be the same as yours?

Any trading should be based on your own position management, and we have discussed the topic of position management many times before. Interested partners can directly search and review through the e-book "Blockchain Methodology" (Volume 1 + Volume 2) from Talking Li, Talking Outside. As shown in the figure below.

On the basis of reasonable position management (suitable for your risk preference), we should combine some on-chain indicators, candlestick