DOGE ETF Rumors Add Fuel to Derivatives Frenzy

A speculative tweet from a Dogecoin fan account has sparked renewed attention in the memecoin derivatives market. The post claimed that a Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) ETF approval might be announced “next week,” attributing a 60% rally to this unverified development.

While the idea of a DOGE ETF isn't new, there is currently no confirmation from regulatory bodies such as the SEC or any reputable financial institution. As such, this should be viewed strictly as a rumor - not a verified signal of institutional acceptance.

Still, the timing of this claim coincides with a sharp uptick in both DOGE’s open interest and OI-weighted funding rates. According to CoinGlass, DOGE’s futures open interest more than doubled from late April to mid-May, reaching multi-month highs above $4 billion.

According to the latest data from CoinGlass, the price of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has surged by 60% over the past month, largely due to the pending approval of an ETF, which a fan account claims will be announced next week.

Top Gainer: Dogecoin

The memecoin has also been a top gainer among major cryptocurrencies over the past month, with its price increasing by 108.37% since April 13, compared to a 38.33% gain in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and a 23.61% gain in Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) over the same period.

The strong bullish momentum in the Dogecoin market is also evident in the sharp increase in futures open interest (OI) and OI-weighted funding rates.

According to CoinGlass, the futures OI for Dogecoin has more than doubled from around $1.8 billion in late April to over $4 billion in mid-May, reaching a multi-month high.

Moreover, the funding rates flipped decisively positive after May 7, indicating a large influx of aggressive long positioning.

Together, these data points suggest that traders are positioning for continuation, possibly influenced by rumors of an ETF approval or other speculative narratives.

Unconfirmed ETF Rumors

Unconfirmed rumors of an ETF filing circulating earlier this year had a significant short-term impact on altcoin prices, even though the filings never materialized. This dynamic could create lucrative opportunities for high-risk traders. However, it also increases the probability of strong downside volatility if the rumors are false and expectations are not met.

Therefore, risk management is crucial, especially at such high open interest levels.

The World’s Best Memecoin

The Prime Memecoin is moving inside an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. The upper boundary of the triangle is providing resistance for the bulls, while the lower boundary is offering support.

The triangle's resistance is located at $0.25, a level that Dogecoin tested but failed to close above. On the other hand, the coin's price has found support at $0.2079, and a deeper structural base is seen near $0.1839.

Since mid-March, Dogecoin has formed a series of higher lows along the rising trendline, indicating bullish bias within the consolidation.

If the cryptocurrency breaks out of the pattern, the next resistance target for the bulls would be around $0.277. A breakout above this level could help Dogecoin reach the pattern's projected price target.

The relative strength index is now at 68 on the daily chart, indicating elevated momentum but not yet extreme overbought conditions.

The volume has also increased during recent attempts to break through resistance, but not at the level typically required for a confirmed breakout.

The projected price target is calculated by adding the height of the pattern at its widest point to the breakout level. In this case, the extension aligns with the 1.414 Fibonacci level, which is around the $0.3845 zone.

For the bullish scenario to be confirmed, Dogecoin needs to close decisively above $0.2488 with strong volume. Until then, the structure remains intact but unconfirmed.

A rejection at this point could return the coin's price to test $0.2079, and potentially the ascending trendline itself. The setup structurally favors the bulls, but the trigger has yet to be pulled.