Bitcoin holds its breath. In a context where every economic decision can shake the markets

In a macroeconomic context that keeps shifting with every economic decision, the most coveted digital asset seems poised to reach a new milestone. But between contradictory signals and anxious expectations, will this goal be achieved without incident? Certainly, several key factors will make this week anything but ordinary.

This week, several key factors are closely watched by traders, who could either trigger a correction in bitcoin or, conversely, strengthen its bullish momentum that began in early April.

The $93,500 threshold becomes strategic

Despite a temporary dip to $93,350, bitcoin shows strong resilience around its annual opening level. Recent data indicates a significant cluster of sell-side liquidity at $96,420, which could act as a magnet if the uptrend is confirmed. Technical analysts like CrypNuevo mention optimistic short-term scenarios, with targets at $97,000 or even $98,000 for BTC.

For this movement to be validated, BTC must imperatively hold the $93,500 threshold. Losing this key support would invalidate recent rebounds and could reopen the way to a correction toward $91,500. So the battle is centered around a major psychological threshold.

The Fed at the center of the game

On May 7, the Fed’s interest rate decision could become a major catalyst. Although the probability of a cut is considered low (5.2% according to CME FedWatch), Jerome Powell’s comments are closely scrutinized. Political pressure, embodied by Donald Trump, is intensifying to bend the central bank, but persistent inflation limits its room for maneuver.

Historically, risk assets like bitcoin tend to retreat ahead of FOMC announcements. Language deemed too restrictive could thus trigger a new wave of selling, while a more accommodative tone would revive buyers’ appetite. Caution is therefore advised until Powell’s press conference.

Fear of recession drives bets on bitcoin

The US economy shows worrying signs of slowdown. The consumer recession anticipation rate reaches 72%, the highest in two years. The trade war context with China and poor US GDP figures fuel this anxious climate. In this uncertain environment, bitcoin attracts attention as an alternative safe haven.

Since the announcement of new tariffs on April 2, the asset has risen by 15%. Institutional investors could increase this momentum in case of new signs of stagflation. Result: any negative macroeconomic data this week — especially the May 8 employment figures — could paradoxically support BTC.

Bitcoin dominance reaches a critical threshold

Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market nears 65%, a level not seen since 2021. This rapid rise reflects investors’ distrust towards altcoins. According to Rekt Capital, a final peak near 71% could mark the end of the BTC bullish cycle and trigger a long-awaited “altseason“.

But this time, the dynamics are different. Massive purchases by BlackRock or Michael Saylor through spot ETFs change the game. They store their BTC and do not convert them into altcoins, which distorts historical benchmarks. This unique setup could further delay the arrival of a true bull market in other cryptocurrencies.

The return of FOMO could disrupt the market

Finally, investor sentiment is swinging back into euphoria. The Fear & Greed index remains neutral, but social media shows a clear rise in price expectations above $100,000. According to Santiment, the best time to buy was between April 6 and 18, a period when pessimistic forecasts dominated. Today, the optimal window for buying appears closed.

Yet, the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is returning. This time, it’s not the bears who are making noise, but the bulls. This signals a potential shift in market dynamics, which could lead to more volatility and rapid price fluctuations. As a result, staying focused and rational is crucial to navigate this new phase of the market effectively.

What behavior to adopt this week?

Given all that has been said, investors should exercise tactical vigilance this week. Indeed, the $93,500 level serves as a barometer: if it holds, short-term bullish prospects remain credible, especially in case of a favorable reaction to the FOMO. However, overly aggressive Fed language or a macroeconomic surprise could reignite volatility. The more cautious will opt for gradual entries between $91,500 and $92,500, in case of a correction. Lastly, the rise of FOMO calls for rigorous risk management. It’s better to miss a train than to jump onto a speeding wagon without brakes.

Bitcoin is therefore at a crossroads this May. Between economic pressures, political tensions, and market frenzy, BTC hesitates between rebound and drop. This week could mark a decisive turning point, both for traders and long-term investors. Better to be prepared than surprised.