Bitcoin Needs to Hit $171,000 for Realized Price Model to Match Previous Cycle Peaks

Bitcoin (BTC) might need to hit around $171,000 for the Short-Term Holder (STH) Year-over-Year (YoY) Realized Price to reach levels seen at previous cycle peaks, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.

As Adler, Jr. points out, the STH YoY Realized Price is currently at 58%. However, in previous macro cycles, this metric usually peaked at much higher levels—165% and 144%—which coincided with Bitcoin reaching $70,000 and $100,000, respectively. These surges were typically followed by waves of profit-taking.

If the STH YoY Realized Price were to achieve the same magnitude of peaks in the current cycle, it would need to increase by 82 percentage points, reaching 140%.

At the present Bitcoin price of approximately $94,000, this increment in the STH YoY Realized Price would translate to a potential top around $171,000.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful," concludes Adler, Jr., as he provides a caveat. Despite the fact that historical data can be a useful compass, it's important to remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.