Bitcoin Decouples from S&P 500, Showing Early Signs of a New Bull Market

Bitcoin [BTC] began 2025 with a surprising decoupling from equities, outpacing the S&P 500. At press time, BTC was valued at $100,839, showcasing a 1.39% gain over the past 24 hours and a 7.16% rise in the last seven days.

This shift marked a significant divergence, as crypto markets typically followed a highly correlated trajectory to stock markets. However, 2025 began with BTC exhibiting signs of independence from macroeconomic factors.

A closer look at the markets revealed that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500. While BTC posted a 3.7% gain in a single day, the S&P 500 recorded a modest 0.4% increase, signaling divergence.

“For most of the past three years, cryptocurrency has been perceived as a ‘high-leveraged tech stock,’ but current data suggests that BTC may break away from stock market fluctuations,” noted Santiment on X (formerly Twitter).

Interestingly, crypto markets have experienced their strongest bull runs when they had a low correlation with equities. If Bitcoin can sustain its momentum and operate independently of macroeconomic factors, it could pave the way for new all-time highs in 2025.

A visual representation of the Bitcoin Support Resistance levels. Resistance levels are depicted as walls of varying heights, indicating the amount of BTC held at each price point.

This analysis showed strong support for BTC above a critical zone ranging from $95,400 to $98,400, where 1.77 million addresses purchased 1.53 million BTC. This cluster of buyers represented a strong demand zone that could prevent significant price declines.

On the upside, BTC faced minimal resistance, with only 107,000 BTC held by 102,168 addresses between $104,700 and $105,770. If BTC breaks through this light resistance zone, analysts expected further upward movement, as selling pressure remained limited at higher levels.

This positive ratio reflected strong market sentiment, as most holders were confident in Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Data from Coinglass showed an increase in Bitcoin Futures Open Interest, now at $64.96 billion, up 2.20% daily. Open Interest(OI) has been steadily climbing since mid-2024, aligning with Bitcoin’s price rally and reflecting heightened speculative activity.

Additionally, trading volume surged by 49.82% to $86.96 billion, and options volume jumped 76.78% to $3.54 billion, indicating growing trader engagement.

However, rising OI and leveraged positions can increase the risk of volatility. The BTC Total Liquidations Chart recorded $17.87 million in long liquidations and $2.95 million in short liquidations in the past session.

This imbalance suggests that overleveraged longs were wiped out during minor price corrections.

With a strong support base and minimal resistance ahead, analysts believe Bitcoin is well-positioned to test new all-time highs if it continues to decouple from traditional markets