Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Will BTC/USD Continue Its Upward Trend?

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating since April 25 just below the $95,000 mark with a brief foray higher being met by selling pressure. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to defy market dynamics as it now accounts for around 65% of the entire crypto market cap, the highest level since 2021.

Bitcoin has enjoyed a rollercoaster ride over the past four months which largely mirrors the overall market dynamic. As usual the naysayers were once again in full voice as price dipped toward the $75,000 mark in early April after markets dealt with the shock of US President Donald Trump’s universal tariff announcement.

Since then however, Bitcoin has risen to a high of around $97,900 a gain of around 30% from the early April lows. This at a time when risk assets have struggled and safe haven assets saw significant inflows. Is this another sign that markets are starting to see the world’s largest crypto as a safe haven or diversification hedge against uncertainty? I believe it is, but many may disagree.

Looking ahead though and there are differing takes on where Bitcoin may be headed. I have been looking through some data from GlassNode and there are some interesting takeaways that paint an interesting picture. Let us break these down below.

Glassnode on-chain analytics

According to GlassNode, the current price range between $93,000 and $95,000 where price found support multiple times between November 2024 and February 2025 may hold the key.

To understand the current market momentum, we can look at how it reacts to key technical and on-chain indicators. When these two align, they usually give a stronger, clearer signal.

For this analysis, we’re focusing on the 111DMA, a commonly used technical average for measuring Bitcoin momentum, and the Short-Term Holder cost basis, a pricing level that often separates bullish and bearish market trends.

111DMA is at $91.3K, and the Short-Term Holder cost basis is at $93.2K. The price recently moved above both levels and is now trying to stay within this range. This shows a solid upward trend. However, these levels need to be broken and maintained to see further price growth. If the price falls below this zone, it could turn bearish again, leaving investors with significant unrealized losses.

Source: Glassnode

For now price has been holding above these levels with any attempt to break lower being met with significant buying pressure. However, in order for the bulls to take charge a break and consolidation above the $95,000 handle will likely be needed.

If they can manage to do so then the psychological $100,000 level may come into focus.

Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin ETFs are enjoying a renaissance of late with BlackRock ishares Bitcoin trust delivering outflows of $674.91 million on Friday, May 2 while no other Bitcoin ETF saw outflows on Friday

However, ETF flows have been strong since mid-April. The last 3 days however have seen outflows of around $1.52 billion, a sign that a bullish breakout may be incoming?

Source: Farside Investors

Another positive for ETF flows around Bitcoin comes from BlackRock once more. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has brought in more money this year than the biggest gold-backed ETF.

On May 6, Bloomberg’s Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared that IBIT is now the sixth-highest fund in the US based on year-to-date (YTD) inflows.

The data shows that IBIT has attracted over $6.9 billion since January, outperforming SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which brought in about $6.5 billion despite a 23% rise in return.

Is regulation still coming?

Crypto regulation in the US has been a major talking point in 2025. There had been hopes that regulation would finally get the clarity many had been hoping for. So far, there has been a lot of movement at the SEC and on the regulatory front but it appears that every step forward is followed by two steps back.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan worries Congress might mess up key crypto regulations at the last moment. The GENIUS Act, once a bipartisan stablecoin win, lost critical support due to concerns over Trump’s role in crypto, which could stall other crypto bills.

Still, Hougan believes crypto can hit new highs, with bitcoin possibly surging past $200K, if Congress passes stablecoin and market structure bills. “The next few weeks are critical,” he said.

“Legislation failure could mean a tough summer for crypto, but success could spark an unstoppable bull run.”

A positive announcement did materialize today however, with New Hampshire