Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Ascending Triangle Pattern Points to $99,038 Breakout

On April 30, 2025, Bitcoin's 4-hour chart was showing the formation of an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern that often signals a breakout to the upside. This pattern is defined by a horizontal resistance and a rising trendline of higher lows, suggesting that buyers are gradually gaining strength.

The chart also showed a potential upside target of around $99,038. This target was calculated by measuring the height of the triangle and applying it above the horizontal resistance line, which was trading at around $96,000 at the time. The breakout projection suggests an almost 4% increase from the current resistance level, highlighting a possible short-term rally if the triangle confirms.

Key technical signals remained supportive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, was reading 55.09, while its moving average was at 57.00, suggesting moderate bullish bias without overbought pressure. At the same time, Bitcoin was holding above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now at $93,075, which reinforces the prevailing uptrend.

Macro Chain Index Flashes Rare Long Signal With Historical Accuracy

Meanwhile, X user Alpha Extract reported that its Macro Chain Index (MCI) issued a long signal—its first since 2022. The MCI is a composite on-chain indicator that tracks metrics like wallet activity, miner flows, and market cycles to detect long-term shifts in Bitcoin trends.

According to the chart, past long signals—marked by green lines—appeared at key market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Each was followed by a significant rally. In contrast, red lines marked market tops. The latest green line in 2025 signals another potential bottom after a prolonged cooldown.

The chart displays Bitcoin's price since 2012 on a logarithmic scale, showing clear market cycles. Below it, the MCI line appears in bold blue, surrounded by supporting data. At the bottom, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently crossed above its moving average, a typical bullish momentum signal.

This long signal aligns with the ascending triangle pattern visible on recent charts. The MCI signal and price structure now reinforce each other, adding strength to the current bullish outlook.

Bitcoin Volatility Drops to 563-Day Low as ETF Demand Grows

Moreover, Bitcoin's volatility has fallen to its lowest point in over 18 months, suggesting the asset is entering a more stable phase. On April 30, 2025, weekly volatility dropped to a 563-day low, according to K33 Research head Vetle Lunde. Volatility measures how much an asset's price changes over time. A lower reading means price swings are narrowing, which often reflects stronger market confidence and reduced uncertainty.

In the meantime, Bitcoin's market capitalization has reached $1.87 trillion, making it the seventh-largest asset in the world. It now ranks ahead of Silver, Meta, and Saudi Aramco, based on data from Companiesmarketcap.

At the same time, ETF inflows continue to grow. On April 28, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $970 million in new investments. This is its second-largest single-day inflow. Rising demand from institutional products like ETFs adds to the supply pressure, supporting long-term bullish expectations.

Bitcoin Accumulation Led by Whales as Smaller Holders Still Selling

Glassnode data from April 30, 2025, shows that Bitcoin accumulation is moving from large holders to smaller ones. This is a pattern often linked to long-term market strength. According to the post, wallets holding over 10,000 BTC, known as whales, are near peak accumulation, with a score of 0.95. This number reflects strong net buying over recent weeks.

Mid-size cohorts, specifically those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC and 100 to 1,000 BTC, are also accumulating. They are maintaining high scores between 0.8 and 0.9. These values suggest that institutional and large individual investors continue to buy and hold Bitcoin steadily.

At the same time, wallets with 10–100 BTC—typically smaller but still significant holders—are shifting from neutral behavior to accumulation. Their score is rising toward 0.6. This shows a growing interest from mid-level investors who may have previously hesitated during recent market uncertainty.

In contrast, smaller holders—those with 1–10 BTC (~0.3 score) and less than 1 BTC (~0.2)—are still acting as net distributors. This means they are selling more than buying. Historically, such a top-down accumulation pattern—where larger players lead and smaller ones lag—has preceded