Dogecoin (DOGE) price action sets the stage for a potential surge to $1, analyst identifies the timeline

An analyst has identified the timeline for Dogecoin to surge higher, based on major breakout signals.

Notably, Dogecoin’s price movement has recently taken a significant bullish turn, with a strong breakout pushing its value from under $0.17 on May 7 to a peak just above $0.249 by May 11.

This rally marked a 36% gain within a week, but according to technical indicators and network activity, analysts are now tracking signals that may support a longer-term move.

Breakout From Long-Term Resistance

The chart under review by Chris, an analyst on X, is a daily DOGE/USD pair, which highlights a breakout above a descending trendline. That trendline had acted as resistance since January 2025, repeatedly rejecting Dogecoin’s price at $0.44, $0.20, and $0.17.

In addition to the trendline breach, the Ichimoku Cloud indicator confirms the bullish momentum. The price has moved above the cloud, flipping its structure into a positive alignment with the green leading span now positioned above the red. This realignment transforms the cloud from resistance into support, confirming the upward bias.

Furthermore, the analyst plotted Fibonacci extension levels around price targets at $0.69 (1.618 level) and $0.82 (2.0 level). These levels are widely used by traders to project future movements based on prior rallies.

The analysis includes a forecast by the analyst suggesting that DOGE may reach $1 by September 23, aligning with the end of summer. Notably, DOGE would need to surge approximately 327.35% from $0.234 to reach $1.

If DOGE reaches $1, the market cap would rise to $149.08 billion, assuming the circulating supply remains stable. Currently, Dogecoin’s market cap sits above $35 billion, up 4% in the past 24 hours.

Other Observers Eyeing the $1 Milestone

Notably, this is not the only observer eyeing the $1 milestone for the meme coin. In a forecast made last year, Galaxy Research predicted that Dogecoin (DOGE) could build on its momentum through 2024 and potentially reach fresh all-time highs in 2025.

The firm suggested that the meme-inspired cryptocurrency might finally achieve the long-anticipated $1 mark, pushing its market capitalization to around $100 billion during the year.

Separately, another market analyst pointed to a bullish technical indicator—a cup and handle formation that has been developing since 2021—as a sign that DOGE could approach the $1 level. This analyst projected a specific price target of approximately $0.88 based on that chart pattern.

Network Metrics Indicate Surge in User Activity

While technical indicators reveal a bullish breakout, on-chain activity also signals rising momentum. Over the past seven days, Dogecoin has recorded a 102.40% increase in new addresses and a 111.32% spike in active addresses. More strikingly, zero balance addresses surged by 155.34%.

These metrics highlight a sharp rise in user participation. Such spikes typically align with growing retail interest and speculative engagement, often preceding heightened price volatility or sustained bullish phases. The pace of wallet creation and active use suggests broader engagement beyond short-term trading behavior.

Futures Market Data Reveals Diverging Trends

Meanwhile, data from Glassnode shows notable divergence between Dogecoin’s spot price and futures market activity. While DOGE pulled back from its $0.25 high to stabilize around $0.22, futures open interest climbed from $989 million to $1.62 billion.

This trend contrasts earlier months. From mid-February through April, futures open interest tracked DOGE’s spot price, declining in tandem during market downturns. However, the recent decoupling indicates persistent speculative positioning, despite cooling price momentum. Glassnode emphasizes this behavior as a signal to monitor.