Bitcoin: From Peaks to Year-End Turbulence

As 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, seems to have put its flamboyance away for the festive season. With a price hovering around $93,000, investors are taking a pause. However, some are hoping for a spectacular awakening for the crypto market as the inauguration of Donald Trump approaches in January. A look back at a tumultuous week and the weak but crucial signals.

Bitcoin: from peaks to year-end turbulence

In 2024, the price of bitcoin made headlines by reaching a historic high of $108,000, powered by the “Trump Bump.” But since then, the euphoria has faded: the flagship cryptocurrency now navigates between $92,500 and $99,000, weighed down by sluggish activity related to the holidays and thus plummeting transactions.

According to Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, “Bitcoin has remained stuck in a narrow range due to declining institutional volumes.”

Although volatility is an old acquaintance for bitcoin, analysts note a unique momentum this year:

“This year, however, we've seen an interesting dynamic, with bitcoin showing less volatility compared to previous years, despite the presence of macroeconomic events and anticipation of a potential Trump Bump 2.0.”

Meanwhile, giants like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate BTC (1), having recently added 5,200 units to their treasury. This bold move raises questions about institutional intentions: strategic accumulation or risky bet against a potential rise of Trump?

Crypto market: between expectations and concerns

The crypto market has not been spared this week, with global capitalization slightly down to $3.27 trillion. Ethereum, the runner-up, followed the descent with a range between $3,275 and $3,535.

In the meantime, stablecoins and DeFi maintain relatively stable activity, representing 91.52% and 8.15% of traded volumes, respectively. However, the overall climate remains marked by cautious neutrality, illustrated by the fear and greed index frozen at 50.

Another worrying signal: hackers are becoming increasingly creative (2) in emptying investors’ wallets. Taylor Monahan has alerted to sophisticated scams where fake recruiters prompt their targets to install malware.

This climate of distrust weighs on the market, as some hope for a resurgence of interest as the inauguration of Donald Trump (3) approaches, seen as a potential catalyst for bitcoin.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, adds a fourth point:

« One-off events should also play a role, particularly the year-end holidays, which are expected to dull market liquidity in the short term. However, conditions are likely to improve in January with the anticipated start of FTX repayments on January 3, releasing $16 billion to compensate users. This event is expected to bolster overall market liquidity. »

Finally, Arthur Hayes does not view Trump’s inauguration in a favorable light: he even anticipates a massive collapse of cryptos. While his pessimism contrasts with the prevailing wait-and-see attitude, he reminds us that surprises, good or bad, are never lacking in the universe of cryptos.

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La révolution blockchain et crypto est en marche ! Et le jour où les impacts se feront ressentir sur l’économie la plus vulnérable de ce Monde, contre toute espérance, je dirai que j’y étais pour quelque chose