Bitcoin Has Increased by 27% Since Its April 7 Lows

The Bitcoin price has increased by 27% since its April 7 lows, breaking from several diagonal resistance levels as bulls roared back.

The cryptocurrency’s price reached a high slightly above $95,000 today, a level it has attempted to clear several times this past week.

Now, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can flip this resistance into support and confirm a trend reversal that can shape the rest of the year.

Bitcoin Price Reaches Resistance

The weekly time frame analysis shows that the price has rallied, increasing by 27% since its low in April. It also formed three successive bullish weekly candlesticks.

It is now making its fourth one, though there are more than three days left until the weekly close.

The price is also at a confluence of different resistance levels. These include:

The price is also testing the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $94,000.

The Fib level 0.382 of the entire bear market move from the 2021 highs is around $95,000.

The last diagonal resistance line is around $96,000.

Technical indicators are also at critical levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above 50, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is close to making a bullish cross.

A price breakout will likely confirm that the weekly indicators have turned bullish.

So, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin will break out from these resistances or create a lower high and begin a downward movement.

Can Bitcoin’s Price Break Out?

The daily time frame analysis gives an uncertain Bitcoin price prediction, failing to confirm if a breakout will occur.

The cryptocurrency has been trading in what resembles an ascending wedge in the past two weeks.

The ascending wedge is a bearish pattern, meaning it usually leads to a breakdown.

BTC is nearing the end of the pattern, so a decisive movement is likely soon.

Despite being in a bearish pattern, the RSI and MACD have generated hidden bullish divergences (orange), creating confusion about the trend’s direction.

So, the price action and indicator readings are insufficient to predict whether Bitcoin will break out or not.

Let’s look at the wave count and see if it provides any more clarity.

Outline for Future Movement

Similarly to the price action, the wave count gives two different paths that Bitcoin can take moving forward.

The bearish one suggests BTC is nearing the end of an A-B-C corrective structure (green) that started on April 7.

Wave B is a symmetrical triangle, and wave C’s end develops into an ending diagonal.

The sub-wave count is black, predicting a maximum of another high before a breakdown, taking Bitcoin to new lows.

The bullish analysis suggests Bitcoin’s price has started a new five-wave upward movement (green).

If so, it is in an extended wave three. The sub-wave count is black, showing a symmetrical triangle for sub-wave four.

BTC will finish wave three and begin a corrective movement in this count.

Then, the fifth and final wave will take the Bitcoin price to a new all-time high.

While the long-term prediction for both outlooks is hugely different, the short-term ones are alike, predicting a local top soon.

Critical Resistance Ahead

The Bitcoin price trades at a critical confluence of resistance between $94,000 and $96,000.

Whether it breaks out will have massive ramifications for the long-term trend.

The wave count is also at a turning point since another breakout would indicate a bullish long-term trend.

Even in the bullish scenario, a local top of around $98,000 is likely before the price breaks down.