Bitcoin’s expanding institutional adoption may provide the “structural” inflows

Bitcoin’s price could surge above $1 million by 2029 as its expanding institutional adoption provides the “structural” inflows to surpass gold’s market capitalization, according to Bitwise’s head of European research, André Dragosch.

Dragosch made the prediction during the Chain Reaction daily X spaces show on April 30.

“Our in-house prediction is $1 million by 2029. So that Bitcoin will match gold's market cap and total addressable market by 2029,” he said.

Gold is currently the world’s largest asset, valued at over $21.7 trillion. In comparison, Bitcoin’s market capitalization sits at $1.9 trillion, making it the seventh-largest asset globally, according to CompaniesMarketCap data.

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For the 2025 market cycle, Dragosch predicts that Bitcoin may reach highs of $200,000 in the “base case” and $500,000 with more governmental adoption.

“So the base case is $200,000, conditional on the US government not stepping in. If they step in, it will move closer toward $500,000,” said Dragosch, referring to the US government’s plan to potentially make direct Bitcoin acquisitions through “budget-neutral” strategies.

The US is looking at “many creative ways” to fund its Bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the US Treasury’s gold certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the BTC reserve without selling gold, Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets said in an interview on April 14.

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'Structural' ETF inflows, institutional adoption prolong Bitcoin cycle

The US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed all expectations during their first year of trading, exceeding record trading volumes as BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF became the fastest-growing ETF in history.

The first year is usually the “slowest” for ETFs, Dragosch said, highlighting the launch of the gold ETF:

The Bitcoin cycle may also be prolonged when US wirehouses start gaining exposure to Bitcoin and ETFs.

“In the US, the major distribution channels go via Wirehouses, which are essentially the big banks like Merrill Lynch or Morgan Stanley. [...] Not even half of these wirehouses have opened up their distribution channels to US Bitcoin ETFs,” the analyst said.

Adoption from US wirehouses may bring a “huge amount of capital,” since these control over $10 trillion worth of customer assets, Dragosch added.