Betting Markets Indicate a 70% Likelihood That President-elect Donald Trump Will Establish a Bitcoin Reserve by 2026

Betting markets are indicating a high probability of President-elect Donald Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve during his presidency.

According to Kalshi, traders are betting on a 70% chance that Trump will create this reserve by 2026.

Polymarket bettors, on the other hand, estimate a 42% chance of this occurring within his first 100 days in office. These odds have reportedly risen by about 20% since earlier this month.

Kalshi and Polymarket have gained attention for their accuracy in prediction markets, having forecasted the outcomes of the US elections more effectively than traditional polling methods.

Trump, who advocated for the US to become a leader in cryptocurrency at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, also proposed the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve.

This proposal aligns with US Senator Cynthia Lummis’ BITCOIN Act, which aims to require the Treasury Department to acquire 1 million BTC over five years.

Recent reports indicate that Trump is open to including a diverse range of cryptocurrencies, such as USD Coin, Solana, and XRP, in this potential reserve.

Additionally, Trump intends to issue an executive order prioritizing cryptocurrency on a national level once he assumes office.

CoinShares, a digital asset investment firm, has suggested that forming a Bitcoin reserve in the US could have a greater long-term impact on the asset’s adoption than the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024.

As the incoming administration prepares to make its move, the cryptocurrency industry is keeping a close watch to see if these promises regarding cryptocurrency will come to fruition.