Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $1 Million by 2028

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has once again predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028. Speaking at the Token2049 event in Dubai, Hayes delivered a strong pro-crypto message, declaring, “It’s time to go long everything,” referring to both cryptocurrencies and equities.

The prediction was tied to Hayes’s expectations of increased liquidity in global markets, especially in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve eventually resorting to measures similar to quantitative easing—injecting more capital into the financial system to stabilize markets.

“It’s going to be a liquidity-driven move, not a valuation-driven move,” Hayes said, adding that hedge funds would be forced to intervene.

The scenario envisioned by Hayes is an extension of Q3 2022, when fears around inflation, high interest rates, and the looming FTX collapse spooked investors. Back then, the Federal Reserve intervened with a massive liquidity measure.

Through its repo program, the central bank added around $2.5 trillion to the financial system in just three months, a move that supported asset prices despite the bleak market sentiment.

However, this liquidity support is now diminishing as the Federal Reserve pivots toward raising interest rates to combat inflation. As a result, there will be less capital available in the market, and with global markets performing poorly due to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, hedge funds will be forced to step in.

“The hedge funds are going to have to provide the liquidity to keep the markets afloat,” Hayes said.

This scenario will unfold as Trump’s administration is unlikely to cooperate with the Federal Reserve to stabilize the market, according to Hayes.

“There’s going to be no bailout from the Fed, and Trump is going to say, ‘We’re going to start cutting tariffs on November 1, and if the market doesn’t go up, we’re going to keep cutting tariffs.’ And then the hedge funds are going to say, ‘Oh my God, we’re going to get wiped out.’ So what are they going to do? They’re going to start buying up U.S. Treasuries.”

This liquidity would then flow into alternative assets like Bitcoin, pushing its price upward, according to Hayes.

The prediction comes as ARK Invest also raised its price target for Bitcoin in a bullish scenario to $2.4 million by 2030. The previous prediction was $1.5 million.

The new base case scenario is now $1.2 million, up from $680,000. Even the bear case has been revised upward to $500,000, which is double the previous prediction.

The predictions are based on an analysis of the Bitcoin network's hashrate and the potential for increased utilization of BTC as a payment method.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest level in six years.

Exchange reserves refer to the amount of Bitcoin held on cryptocurrency exchanges. When these reserves fall, it means investors are withdrawing their coins from exchanges into private wallets.

This behavior typically indicates a long-term holding strategy, as traders who move their assets off exchanges usually intend to store them securely rather than sell them.

This reduction in available supply on exchanges reduces selling pressure, which can support price increases. It also reflects growing confidence among investors who expect Bitcoin’s value to rise in the future.

One of the main reasons for the shrinking exchange reserves is the aggressive accumulation by large institutions.

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MBI), the largest public Bitcoin holder, now owns over 214,000 BTC and continues to buy more.

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), Fidelity, and other asset managers have also entered the market through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched earlier this year. These ETFs require the physical purchase of Bitcoin, which further reduces circulating supply.

As these institutions accumulate, they remove coins from the open market, contributing to the drop in exchange-held Bitcoin.

This institutional interest, combined with reduced supply and increased global liquidity expectations, creates a setup that many analysts believe could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.