Anticipation of an XRP ETF Is Building as Analysts Weigh Up Potential Inflows, Market Impacts, and Regulatory Dynamics

Anticipation is brewing in the crypto sector over the prospect of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for XRP, with analysts from Standard Chartered Bank presenting a bullish outlook on potential inflows and price impacts.

While rumors and delays have shaped much of the recent conversation, data-driven forecasts from key institutions now offer a clearer picture.

Standard Chartered’s projections are based on net asset value (NAV) benchmarks from existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which are used to estimate potential inflows into a US-listed XRP spot ETF.

Those forecasts, however, are met with some caution from other market analysts who point out that investor interest might be more diversified across a wider range of crypto ETFs.

Standard Chartered’s projection

Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said the US-listed futures and inverse ETFs had been used to model potential inflows into an XRP ETF.

The stipes were applied to the market capitalisations of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the coins’ prices on 1 January.

Those ratios, when applied to XRP’s market capitalisation, translate into an estimated inflow of $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion in the first year.

Kendrick added that data from Bitwise ETPs in Europe showed that although altcoins had a smaller share of the ETP NAVs compared to their market caps, there were also fewer products available for altcoins.

“The products that are available tend to have a higher NAV-to-market-cap ratio. For example, the stipes for Litecoin, Solana and XRP were 26%, 20% and 14%, respectively, versus 6% for Bitcoin and 3% for Ethereum.”

The prospect of an XRP ETF has been heating up, with several firms filing applications. Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary and 21Shares are among those seeking approval for an XRP ETF.

Among those, Bitwise’s application was officially acknowledged by the SEC on 18 February, setting a maximum deadline of 240 days, or 12 October, for a final decision.

This timeline is in line with the timeframes applied to Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier in 2024.

However, the approval of other altcoin ETF applications, such as those for Solana and Litecoin, could also influence when an XRP ETF decision is made.

According to Kendrick, Litecoin might be prioritised due to its direct similarity to Bitcoin and its historical treatment as a commodity.

According to Polymarket, the probability of XRP ETF approval by 31 July is 39%, while the chances of it happening by the end of the year are estimated at 79%.

Meanwhile, analysts like Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg suggest that Litecoin could be the first altcoin to secure approval, followed by HBAR, and eventually XRP and Solana, which still face challenges related to their security classification.

XRP price forecast

Considering the anticipated ETF inflows, Standard Chartered forecasts a significant price appreciation for XRP.

The bank expects XRP to reach $5.50 by the end of 2025 and $8.00 by 2026. Its price target for 2029 is set at $12.25.

This forecast assumes the approval of an XRP ETF and a general continuation of growth in digital asset investment vehicles.

For instance, Standard Chartered anticipates Bitcoin to attain a price of $120,000 in Q2 2025, $200,000 by the end of the year, and $500,000 by 2028.

XRP is expected to keep pace with Bitcoin’s recovery, although it will experience lower overall adoption and an inflation differential.

At present, XRP’s inflation rate stands at 6%, in comparison to Bitcoin’s 0.8%.

Despite bullish outlooks, crypto analysts from exchange Bitfinex remain cautious.

They note that investor interest might be more thinly distributed across a growing list of altcoin ETFs.

Therefore, even if approved, XRP might not generate the same level of FOMO-driven inflows as Bitcoin, especially considering the stipes applied to major crypto ETFs.

Their caution also highlights broader concerns about ETF market saturation and regulatory clarity.

While Bitcoin now enjoys legal clarity as a commodity, XRP has faced classification issues and legal disputes, which could affect investor confidence in the long run.