TAO Price Prepares for a Supply Shock — What Happens When the Bittensor Halvening Hits?

Bittensor is starting to catch more eyes lately, from chart watchers to long-term believers in the protocol.

Bittensor, the protocol known for its token (TAO) and subnet ecosystem, is heating up as technical traders spotted a breakout and researchers highlight the approaching halvening.

Chart-following users are keeping an eye on the technical trends, especially with the potential for new all-time highs in sight. On the other hand, the founders of the protocol are emphasizing the unique tokenomics that could be a major factor in 2026.

Chart Breakout Puts Major Resistance in Sight

Technical analyst Captain Faibik shared an update, focusing on a descending channel that began in late 2023.

As the lower highs and lower lows formed within parallel downward trendlines, the technical indicator spotted a surge that broke through the upper resistance at $260. After the breakout, the price also managed to stay above the former resistance zone, now acting as a support level.

If this structure holds, the next major resistance level is around the $300 mark, with a projected upside target at $370. This level would also mark a new all-time high for the token.

“$TAO Descending Channel Upside Breakout is Confirmed… Now, Send it to the New All time High,” said Faibik in a recent post. The post did not mention any potential downside risks, though the current support levels might serve as invalidation zones if breached.

The first $TAO halvening is expected to happen on the 5th of January 2026.

T-247D and the world (incl. myself) is waking up to the power of @Bittensor_.

An open coordination & incentivized innovation platform that enables the production of best-in-class digital commodities,.

— zerokn0wledge (@zerokn0wledge) August 10, 2024

Two Popular Crypto Figures Highlight Breakout and Halvening

The technical analyst's post comes as researchers are also discussing the upcoming halvening, which is expected on January 5, 2026.

With 247 days remaining, the protocol's fixed supply of 21 million tokens and Bitcoin-style halvening structure are drawing interest.

Highlighting the token's structure, researcher and programmer Zerokn0wledge explained that TAO’s model is designed to reduce miner rewards over time while encouraging quality output through subnet competition. The ecosystem features subnet staking, validator rewards, and alpha token emissions, which together tighten circulating supply and incentivize network growth.

These mechanics, combined with the fixed supply and staking lockups, create a deflationary environment ahead of the halvening. As such, market participants are keeping an eye on both the technical setup and tokenomics.