Since I publicly called for ETH and started dollar-cost averaging in March, today the E guardians finally have a voice.

This wave of three consecutive daily green candles has not given the market any breathing room. There is currently a lot of divergence, with many believing it is about time for a rebound rather than a reversal; others are calling that a big bull market has arrived.

Major exchange platform tokens, such as Binance Token (BNB) and Huobi Token (HT), have generally broken through the 200-day moving average line. Usually, more newcomers will join the market during a bull market! Newcomers registering on exchanges is good for platform tokens, so before the bull market arrives, brokerages will pave the way by pushing up the coin price! Generally, there will be a rise in platform tokens before a bull market.

On-chain data shows that addresses holding over 10,000 ETH, which are usually defined as ‘whales,’ have been quietly carrying out large-scale strategic accumulation before this round of price surge; also, ETFs have shown continuous net inflows! Moreover, on May 10, a whale bought 138,511 ETH, which is valued at 297 million USD at the current price.

Former U.S. President Trump has stated that BTC, ETH, and other valuable cryptocurrencies will become the core of the national strategic reserves. He has also explicitly expressed optimism about Bitcoin and Ethereum. Although there was a subsequent crash, the narrative remains, which is a positive for the long term!

In the past seven days, major exchanges have seen outflows, indicating a large amount of coins being bought up!

News is greater than all data and K-lines.

What is the essence of the previous crash and this round of increase?

Although there are no bearish reasons in the data and K-lines, this round of decline was caused by tariff issues leading to the US stock market dragging down Bitcoin. The new trade agreement between the UK and the US, as well as the China-US trade talks, are positive in terms of news, with the US stock market warming up, leading to rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum!

Currently, since May 8, short positions have been liquidated at 830 million, far exceeding long positions, nearly eight times that of long positions. The sharp price increase has forced short sellers to buy ETH to cover their positions, further pushing up the coin price and forming a typical ‘short squeeze’ upward spiral.

If you are like me, a guardian of E, holding your position is the best choice. If you have no position, it is indeed not a very good time to enter now!

This round of China-US trade talks is more likely to be an exchange of ‘mutual bottom probing.’ If progress goes smoothly, there is hope to set an agenda for the next stage. I think the first wave of negotiations will likely collapse, and at that time, it is highly probable that there will be a decline. When everyone experiences FOMO, it is possible that negative news will be released, leading to a drop and potentially causing a short squeeze!

If you want to buy, waiting for that time to come in would be more appropriate!

The more pessimistic view is that the current market does not yet have the characteristics of a bull market, and there is still a high probability of a 30% correction from the current level.

The more optimistic view is that the current market is already in a bull market, and although there will be fluctuations, the overall trend will continue upwards.

Personally, I believe that the probability of a short-term pullback is relatively high, but it is an opportunity for those who have no position to enter the market. For those who already have a position, it would be best to calmly observe the market changes and adjust our investment strategy accordingly.

It is important to note that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky, and readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.