Macro Chain Index Flashes First Buy Signal Since 2022, Hinting Bitcoin (BTC) Is Entering a New Bull Run

A key Bitcoin (BTC) indicator that accurately signaled the 2022 market bottom has just flashed another buy signal, suggesting the cryptocurrency may be entering a new bull phase.

A key Bitcoin (BTC) indicator that accurately signaled the 2022 market bottom has just flashed another buy signal, suggesting the cryptocurrency may be entering a new bull phase.

The indicator, known as the Macro Chain Index (MCI), is a composite of several long-term on-chain and macroeconomic metrics. It tracks factors such as accumulation behavior, network activity, and supply trends to determine whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical cycle position.

According to Alpha Extract, the creators of the MCI, the most important part of the chart is the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the MCI (purple). In April, the RSI crossed above its 52-week moving average (yellow), which has historically confirmed the start of Bitcoin bull runs.

This RSI crossover previously appeared in 2015 ahead of Bitcoin’s surge to $20,000, in 2019 before the run to $65,000, and in late 2022 just before BTC bottomed near $15,500.

If historical patterns hold, the April 2025 crossover means the beginning of a new bull run, especially as several other indicators also point to Bitcoin breaking above its key psychological resistance at $100,000.

“Our Macro Chain Index fired a long signal, the first buy signal since 2022, when it successfully went long at the absolute bottom,” Alpha Extract emphasized in a recent post.

Bitcoin dipped by as much as 32% after establishing a record high of nearly $110,000 in January, a sharp decline caused primarily by US President Donald Trump’s global trade war. BTC formed a local low below $74,450 in early April, but has since recovered to around $95,650 amid signs that it is “decoupling” from an otherwise bearish US stock market.

Bitcoin open interest recovers by $2.2 billion in April

The recent price rebound is also being supported by strong activity in the futures markets, particularly on Binance.

Between January and early April, open interest (OI) on the exchange dropped from $11.9 billion to $7.5 billion, marking a 36.9% decline and signaling reduced confidence and lower leverage during the market downturn. But the trend flipped in mid-April.

Over the past three weeks, traders pushed OI up by 29.3%, from $7.5 billion to $9.7 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s price rise in spot markets.

This synchronized rise in price and OI shows that traders are entering new long positions, not just closing shorts. It signals growing confidence in Bitcoin’s upside.

Furthermore, funding rates have stayed mostly positive, which means long-position holders are paying short sellers, a typical sign that the market expects higher prices.

The rising open interest and positive funding rates attest to the renewed bullish momentum, and if this continues, we might see Bitcoin surging towards $100,000 in the coming days.