Jurrien Timmer Predicts Bitcoin Will Flip Gold's Market Cap in the Next 10-20 Years

Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity, has weighed in on the Bitcoin vs. gold debate, stating that the premier asset could come out tops soon.

Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity, has weighed in on the Bitcoin (BTC) vs. gold debate, stating that the premier asset could come out tops soon enough.

Both Bitcoin and gold are considered stores of value due to their scarce nature and have continued to thrive in harsh market circumstances, with Bitcoin outperforming in the last decade.

While the difference in valuation between gold and Bitcoin is miles off in the current market, analysts believe the pioneering cryptocurrency will catch up due to its impressive growth pace.

Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, also shares this sentiment as he discussed the topic yesterday.

In an X post on March 28, Timmer highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin outperforming gold. The Fidelity executive noted that the digital asset could accomplish the daunting feat but admitted it would not happen anytime soon.

“People often ask me if #Bitcoin can 'flip' #gold. It’s possible, but I don't think it will happen quickly,” he said.

The post then went on to discuss how quickly the cryptocurrency would have to grow to match the precious metal.

As shared by Timmer, the precious metal has been appreciating in value at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% since 1970, already growing 17% this year.

However, if gold grows at this rate and Bitcoin follows either the power law curve or the internet S-curve model, the cryptocurrency could catch up in ten to twenty years. An accompanying chart shows that following the power curve model would see Bitcoin match gold’s valuation by 2035.

But the internet S-curve model, which indicates Bitcoin’s price correlation with its adoption rate, would take much longer, with Timmer suggesting a 20-year timeframe for Bitcoin to match gold using the metric. Nonetheless, the Fidelity executive noted that gold may always be “Bitcoin’s quieter older sibling” if it accelerates its growth past the 8% CAGR.

Meanwhile, if gold grows hypothetically at 8% per annum from its current price of $3,085 (leaving behind its 17% rally so far this year), the asset will trade at $6,660 per ounce in 2035. Assuming its above-ground stock remains at approximately 6.7 billion ounces, gold’s market cap would hit $44.62 trillion, nearly 116% up from its current valuation of $20.67 trillion.

From Timmer’s assertion, Bitcoin would match gold’s valuation in 2035 using the power law projection. This means that the pioneering cryptocurrency would hypothetically hit a market cap of $44.62 trillion a decade from now.

Hence, with a hypothetically unchanged Bitcoin supply of 19.84 million and a market cap of $44.62 trillion, the crypto leader would reach $2.25 million per coin by 2035.