Bitcoin Has Surged to $104,300, Confirming the Uptrend and Reinforcing the Bullish Outlook

Bitcoin has surged to $104,300, confirming the uptrend and reinforcing the bullish outlook that many analysts projected for 2025.

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Bitcoin price has surged to $104,300, confirming the uptrend and bullish outlook that many analysts predicted for 2025. This move places BTC deep into range-highs territory, with the next major challenge now clearly in sight: the all-time high at $109,000. The market’s strength comes on the back of strong technical performance and increasingly optimistic sentiment, as BTC continues to lead the crypto rally and altcoins follow suit.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant sheds light on the evolving dynamics among large Bitcoin holders, adding another layer to the bullish narrative. One striking metric showcases the yawning gap between the Realized Price of ‘new’ whales entering the market and ‘old’ whales who accumulated earlier.

According to on-chain expert Axel Adler’s analysis, this difference now stands at $59.7K. To put it in perspective, new, large-scale buyers are entering the market at an average price of $91.9K, while the basis for old whales stands at $32.2K.

This disparity translates to a staggering 185% relative spread to the long-term holder (LTH) basis, highlighting a massive divergence in price perception and the stage of the cycle at which these two categories of whales joined the market.

The implication of this divergence is significant. It signals that a new wave of high-conviction buyers is entering the market at significantly elevated prices. Unlike the more cautious whale accumulation observed during previous cycle lows, where smaller amounts were accumulated at lower prices, this phase reflects strong belief in continued upside, even at premium levels. It’s a clear indication that institutional FOMO may be incrementally kicking in.

Bitcoin Faces Resistance At $104K As Whale Activity Signals Growing FOMO

Bitcoin is currently encountering resistance around the $104,000 mark—a level that may take some time to break as it represents a critical barrier before entering price discovery above the all-time high, which is now at $109,000. The recent rally has shown remarkable strength, but as BTC consolidates just below its ATH, some selling pressure is to be expected. A successful breakout could lead to a swift surge beyond $109K; however, failure to do so may result in short-term consolidation or retracement.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared key on-chain insights on X that highlight the evolving psychology of Bitcoin’s largest holders. According to Adler, the absolute difference between the Realized Price of new whales ($91.9K) and old whales ($32.2K) is $59.7K, representing a 185% relative spread to the long-term holder (LTH) basis. This sharp divergence reveals that new “whales” are entering the market at nearly three times the price of early entrants.

In comparison, the same spread in November 2022 was only 62%, indicating more cautious accumulation near the market bottom. The current surge to 185% reflects increasing confidence and FOMO, with large buyers willing to accumulate even at elevated prices. For context, during the 2021 cycle peak at $63K, the spread widened to 437%.

This trend suggests that the market is entering a more aggressive accumulation phase, where belief in higher prices is driving demand despite the premium. If bulls manage to absorb the resistance around $104K, it could mark the start of a parabolic move—fueled not just by momentum, but by conviction from both retail and institutional players betting on a new Bitcoin all-time high.

BTC Price Analysis: Key Levels To Watch

Bitcoin is trading around $103,000 after reaching a high of $104,300 earlier today. The 4-hour chart shows BTC facing resistance at the $103,600 level, which aligns with a key supply zone from late December 2024 and early January 2025. This area acted as a previous rejection point during the last major rally and is now being tested again.

BTC’s recent surge from the $87K–$90K consolidation zone has been aggressive, breaking above both the 200 EMA and 200 SMA (currently at $91,806 and $89,400, respectively) with strong volume. This confirms bullish strength and trend continuation, suggesting that buyers are still in control. However, the current range between $103K and $104K is historically significant, and bulls may