Bitcoin's slump to start the year will give way to a fresh rally to record highs this quarter, says Standard Chartered analyst

Bitcoin's slump to start the year will give way to a fresh rally to record highs this quarter, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick.

Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick is expecting Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high this quarter, with several tailwinds helping to push the apex token to $120,000, the digital asset analyst said on Monday.

Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research, anticipates that the apex token will reach its next record high in the coming months, as broader market trends and investor activity suggest the next bitcoin rally is fast approaching.

“While timing sharp rises in bitcoin is difficult, we think the current period of potential strategic asset reallocation away from US assets may trigger the next such upswing,” he wrote.

“If so, we would expect a new all-time high to be reached in Q2 with further gains over the summer. We maintain our year-end forecast of USD 150,000.”

The crypto perma-bull's remarks provide an upbeat outlook on an asset that's seen a disappointing performance so far this year. Hopes were high that crypto-friendly policies from Washington would propel bitcoin to more gains as it lost momentum after touching $109,000 in January.

But Kendrick sees three reasons the token is poised for a surge.

Economic jitters raise bitcoin's appeal

First, economic uncertainties are creating a nurturing environment for crypto. Tariffs and threats against Federal Reserve independence have diminished investor appetite for traditional safe-haven trades, like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, as markets grow unsettled about broader disruptions to long-term monetary and trade norms.

Yet, government-sector risks often directly benefit bitcoin, Kendrick said. An annual high in the 10-year Treasury’s term premium, or the amount of compensation investors demand for holding the asset, suggests that the token could now catch up to recent gains in gold, as the rates upcycle stalls and investors prepare for a pivot in monetary policy.

“ETF flows for the latest week suggest that this rotation between safe-haven assets is already underway, with flows from gold ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs.” If this continues, it suggests that investors are beginning to view bitcoin as a better safe-haven than the yellow metal.

Tariff buying

Second, the Standard Chartered analysis shows that U.S. investors have been snapping up bitcoin since President Donald Trump announced a 90-day delay of most reciprocal duties on April 9.

“Since then, while both tech stocks and Bitcoin are higher, Bitcoin has outperformed. The correlation breakdown and US buying suggest that US investors are seeking non-US assets.”

Bitcoin hit its lowest price for 2024 on April 8, when it was trading at around $76,000. It has soared 22% since then.

Meanwhile, bitcoin “whales,” or investors who own more than 1,000 bitcoins, have been piling up tokens amid the tariff-induced price slump, Kendrick added.

More catalysts building

Investors should also keep an eye out for 13Fs filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission from U.S. ETFs in mid-May to see if there’s an indication of more institutional support for bitcoin.

Kendricks expects the latest filings to to demonstrate increased buying from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

“Crucially, we expect to see more institutions buying bitcoin in 13F filings for Q1 2024. For example, we expect to see new or increased 13F holdings in bitcoin by major U.S. pension funds (e.g. CalPERS) and university endowments (e.g. Yale, Harvard, Princeton).

Finally, Trump has mentioned the possibility of stablecoin legislation this summer, a move that could provide a fresh tailwind to the crypto market as it continues to expand into the mainstream financial system.