Bitcoin Halving: promises down, stability up?

A great thinker once said that by walking, one discovers the way. With cryptocurrencies, nothing is ever fixed. The crypto market follows its own rules

A great thinker once said that by walking, one discovers the way. In the ever-evolving domain of cryptocurrencies, nothing is ever truly fixed. The crypto market follows its own rules, often ephemeral and sometimes unpredictable. The certainties of yesterday become the doubts of today.

Amid geopolitical changes, economic cycles, technological breakthroughs, and tweets that shake the Nasdaq, everything can change… or remain desperately the same. But if historical benchmarks wobble, can we still believe in the four-year cycle?

Bitcoin Halving: promises down, stability up?

The promises of Bitcoin halving have long resonated like a prophecy in the crypto world. Every four years, the miners’ reward is halved. This newfound rarity, meant to support the BTC price, has often preceded a bull market.

But according to Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon, this model is starting to tire. He claims that “market corrections have become less brutal, around 30 to 40%,” far from the -90% of previous cycles. According to him, the rise of institutional players and the maturation of the crypto market contribute to this stabilization.

We are witnessing less roller coasters and more of a winding path, sprinkled with gentle slopes and unexpected turns.

Can we then talk about the end of a cycle or simply a cycle in mutation?

Analysts debate: is the crypto cycle broken or just muddled?

For some analysts, the 4-year cycle still has a lot to offer. The platform Crypto.com reminds us of the four classic phases: accumulation, rise, distribution, fall. This scheme has worked well in past Bitcoin cycles. However, some voices are rising to nuance this. Analyst Miles Deutscher, for example, thinks that bull markets are now more spread out. Accumulation does not always lead to an immediate rise.

He also notes that flows first head towards BTC, then towards Ethereum, and finally towards altcoins, following a progressively desynchronized rotation. This weakens the idea of a regular cycle.

Other experts mention a crossroads. The Bitcoin halving rally is no longer as mechanical as it used to be. Several parameters are muddling the waters: persistent inflation, high interest rates, institutional adoption, financial derivatives. Even the BTC dominance data shows a stronger concentration of capital on just a few assets.

Consequently, the classic crypto cycle no longer seems as readable. But is it the natural evolution of a growing market or the sign of a deep disruption?

Perspectives: adapt your benchmarks to a changing crypto market

It is clear that the crypto market of 2025 is no longer that of 2013 or even 2017. The entry of institutional investors has changed the game. Derivative products, such as Bitcoin ETFs, now weigh heavily on price dynamics. The collective euphoria has given way to calculated caution.

Moreover, macroeconomic conditions do not facilitate the emergence of a classic bull market. Rates remain high, liquidity remains low, and the United States is watching. Yet, volumes are not collapsing. BTC holds steady, anchored around $84,000 these past few days. The bear market has not disappeared, but it seems less fierce.

On X, Miles Deutscher encapsulates this sentiment well:

The cycle is not dead, it has become more jumbled

Maybe that's the reality of the crypto game today - a treasure hunt where the markers are disappearing one by one. The market is changing, but how do you navigate when the old models no longer work?output