Bitcoin (BTC) Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Has Returned to 0.69, the Same Level as When BTC Was Still $85,000

In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the trend in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for the Bitcoin long-term holders.

On-chain data shows that the profit margin of the Bitcoin long-term holders is currently the same as when BTC was still $85,000. Here’s what’s behind this.

Bitcoin LTH NUPL Has Returned To 0.69

In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shed light on the trend in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for the Bitcoin long-term holders.

The NUPL is an indicator that measures the difference between the unrealized profit and unrealized loss held by the Bitcoin investors as a whole. When the value of this metric is positive, it means the holders are carrying more profit than loss. On the other hand, it being less than zero suggests that the average address is underwater.

In the current context, the overall network's NUPL isn't the focus, but rather that of a specific group: the long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs are defined as the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.

Now, here is the chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL for the LTHs over the past year:

As the post explains, the Bitcoin LTH NUPL has stayed above the zero level for the past year, which indicates that the HODLers of the market have stayed in the green throughout this period.

But naturally, as the BTC price has shown some volatile moves in this timeframe, the indicator's value has also seen some fluctuations. From the chart, it's clear that the bull run at the end of 2024 took the indicator into an extreme territory, but the market downturn this year resulted in a cooling off for the metric.

With the recent price recovery, the indicator saw another reversal, but even at its peak, it couldn't come close to touching the high from the earlier bull run.

An interesting trend has followed since this latest peak in the Bitcoin LTH NUPL; the indicator has seen a sharp retracement, despite the fact that the coin's value has only been moving flat in this window.

The metric is now sitting at 0.69, which is the same level as back at the start of April, when the cryptocurrency was still just trading around $85,000. So, what's making it so that HODLer profitability is the same today despite the price being notably higher? And what's the reason for the latest decline in the metric even though the price has been going sideways?

The answer to these questions lies in what the LTH group represents. As mentioned earlier, this cohort includes investors who purchased their Bitcoin within the past 155 days. This five-month cutoff now includes the buyers from December 2024.

In other words, the promotion of these top buyers into the group has diluted the unrealized gain among its members.