Bitcoin (BTC) Price Breaks Above $100000 as Exchange Reserves Dip to New Lows

Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges is declining rapidly as its price moves higher. On-chain data reveals that reserves held

Bitcoin’s price surged above $100,000 on Thursday as on-chain data showed that exchange and over-the-counter (OTC) reserves fell to their lowest levels in years.

Bitcoin exchange and OTC reserves have declined sharply in recent months.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin held on exchanges and OTC desks has decreased significantly. These sources are commonly used by both retail traders and large institutions for buying or selling.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen below 2.4 million, down from over 3.1 million in mid-2024. OTC desk holdings have also dropped below 120,000 BTC, compared to nearly 480,000 in 2021.

A falling exchange reserve often means that fewer coins are available to sell on the market. This can occur when investors transfer Bitcoin to cold wallets, indicating long-term holding. As supply on exchanges continues to decrease, it can create pressure on price when demand increases.

According to CryptoQuant, “Sellers are disappearing. Bitcoin held on OTC desks is at levels not seen since before the 2020 bull market.” The drop in available supply has led to predictions of a new supply shock in the market.

Market structure favors continued upside

Market analysts also follow price action patterns and trendlines that support further gains. A recent chart shared by analyst CryptoFaibik shows a stair-step pattern of consolidations and breakouts. The chart highlights three instances of strong bullish continuation formations, each followed by higher price movement.

The ascending trendline seen on the chart has held since April, and the price continues to bounce above it. Each breakout has delivered gains between 10% and 13%, with the next target sitting at $114,000. This move would mark a new all-time high for Bitcoin, surpassing the previous peak of around $69,000.

Current price action suggests bullish momentum remains strong, with the potential for Bitcoin to move above $110,000 in the next upward move.

Bitcoin prices break above $100,000 as reserves dip to new low.

A separate model from eMarketer tracks Bitcoin’s 2-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA) multipliers, showing how the asset’s behavior has changed over time. Earlier cycles saw peaks of 15 times the 2Y SMA, during periods of speculative trading. In 2017, Bitcoin peaked at 10× the 2Y SMA, and in 2021, the top was around 5×.

Bitcoin will likely reach its historical resistance at 2.65× band, the price at the all-time high in 2025. This area was touched in the previous bull run and signaled a peak. At the same time, analysts note that this recent trend is exhibiting greater stability. The pattern currently in place is marked by less volatile price rises and smaller drops than in previous cycles.

Traders are interpreting the gap between price and available supply as an indication that the market is strengthening. The previous cycles were characterized by limited traders, while the latest trend is being propelled by major players like long-term investors and institutions.

The Bitcoin market appears to be maturing and becoming more stable. Stability is being slowly achieved as market participants adopt a long-term view and major players back the market.

If current supply and demand trends continue, analysts expect Bitcoin to reach between $150,000 and $250,000 by late 2025. For now, bullish traders are targeting a breakout above the key resistance level at $114,000.

In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.

Olivia Stephanie is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. Her passion for economics and finance has led her to explore emerging blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets.