Bitcoin (BTC) Poised for Major Breakout as $110,000 Test Looms Amid Institutional Dominance

Bitcoin continues to hold steady near the $103,000 level as of May 15, 2025, showing remarkable stability despite approaching its all-time high.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade around the $103,000 level on May 15, showing resilience despite approaching the highs of its all-time run. BTC/USD has been closely tracking a tight band between $102,000 and $105,000 over the past 24 hours, suggesting a period of consolidation ahead of its next major move.

After a period of strong gains that saw Bitcoin rally from the $40,000s to the $100,000 mark in less than six months, a technical pattern suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency could be due for another leg up.

As institutional buyers continue to pour capital into Bitcoin, retail traders appear to be largely disengaged, suggesting that there is still room for further gains.

Institutional Buyers Outpace Retail As Interest Dulls

Looking at the broader trends in 2025 so far, it’s clear that institutional buyers have been the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price action. Data from River shows that retail investors were the largest net sellers of Bitcoin, offloading nearly 247,000 BTC (worth at roughly $23 billion depending on average prices). In contrast, corporations—with Michael Saylor’s Strategy alone accounting for 77% of institutional purchases—acquired around 157,000 BTC throughout the same period.

The lack of retail interest is also evident in Google search trends and app download rankings. Search volume for “Bitcoin” has now dropped to levels last seen in June 2024, when BTC was trading at around $66,000.

To put this in perspective, search interest typically rises visibly when Bitcoin is approaching a new all-time high. In June 2024, the Coinbase app had fallen to 15th place in the financial category of the U.S. App Store.

“This pattern of institutional accumulation coupled with retail apathy usually signals we’re still in the middle stages of a bull cycle, not the euphoric top,” said market expert Sarah Chen. “Historically, retail interest lags by about one week before surging when Bitcoin approaches a new all-time high.”

BTC Technical Analysis Points To Imminent Breakout

Bitcoin’s price structure has formed a clear consolidation pattern that bears watching. Since early April, BTC has been forming a series of higher lows and higher highs, creating a stair-step pattern of consolidation followed by expansion. Each consolidation phase has featured:

Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between an upper boundary of $105,700 and a lower support zone of $100,678. If the established pattern continues, BTC may retest the $100,000-$102,000 level before potentially breaking above $110,000 within the next week.

Statistics from Glassnode, showing that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has increased by $30 billion since April 20—rising at a 3% monthly rate in May to reach $900 billion—further support the optimistic thesis. Although this increase is slower than the 8% increase seen in late 2024, it demonstrates consistent investor confidence and fresh capital inflows.

Moreover, the seven-day Simple Moving Average of Bitcoin’s Spot Volume Delta has turned positive and peaked on May 13, closely tied to the $5 billion mark. This increase in spot purchasing pressure, a rare occurrence this year, supports the notion of significant market belief in Bitcoin’s push past the $100,000 psychological barrier.

Short-Term Technical Evidence Shows Mixed Signals

Despite the overall optimistic outlook, short-term technical indicators suggest some caution. On the hourly chart, a breach below a connecting positive trend line provides support at $103,600. With bears remaining active around the $102,850 level, Bitcoin is currently trading below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average.

Looking ahead, immediate resistance lies at $103,600, while crucial resistance is anticipated at $104,200. A strong breakout above $105,000 could accelerate the rising trend toward $106,500 and potentially even $108,000. However, failure to clear the $104,200 resistance might set the stage for further downside, with support levels anticipated at $102,850, $101,750, and the psychologically significant $100,000.

The hourly MACD is increasing velocity in the bearish zone, while the RSI has slipped below 50, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

Bitcoin Price Predictions and Market Cycle Analysis

Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicts that by August or September this year, Bitcoin might reach between $