Bitcoin (BTC) Is at a Pivotal Moment, Trading at a Critical Support Level of $91,200

Analysts and traders are closely watching this threshold, with some predicting that holding this level could propel Bitcoin to a staggering $132,000 by year-end

World's leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), is trading at a pivotal moment, with critical support at $91,200 and a potential to rise to $132,000 by year-end, according to Real Vision's Jamie Coutts.

A Critical Support Level

Bitcoin's price has been consolidating around $91,200, a level identified by TradingView as a major support zone, further reinforced by the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and recent order book data showing significant bid walls at this threshold.

This support, tested multiple times since Bitcoin reclaimed $90,000 in late April, is seen as a linchpin for the ongoing rally. "The $91,200 level is crucial," said crypto analyst Ali Martinez on X. "Holding here validates bullish momentum, but a break below could see BTC slide to $89,000 or lower."

The cryptocurrency surged 30% from its early April low of $74,475, reaching a high of $97,000 on May 1, 2025, before pulling back to the current range. Technical indicators paint a bullish picture: Bitcoin is trading above the 9-day SMA, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.46, nearing overbought territory but signaling strong momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish crossover, and an ascending triangle pattern on daily charts suggests a potential breakout toward $100,000 if resistance at $97,000 is breached.

Bitcoin's Path to $132,000

The $132,000 target, mentioned by Coutts, depends on Bitcoin maintaining its $91,200 support and capitalizing on favorable market conditions. Coutts attributes this potential to an expanding global fiat money supply (M2), which has historically correlated with Bitcoin rallies. "As M2 grows, Bitcoin's role as a hedge against currency debasement strengthens," he noted, highlighting institutional buying as a key driver. Indeed, IntoTheBlock data reveals a surge in large BTC wallet inflows, with addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC increasing their positions over the past 90 days.

Moreover, market sentiment is buoyed by speculation around U.S. Treasury buybacks and a weakening dollar, which Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, called a "bazooka" for Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin's recent breakout from a cup-and-handle pattern, reclaiming the 100-day EMA at $94,200, further supports the bullish case. Analysts like those at CoinDCX see a retest of the all-time high of $109,000 as plausible in the coming months, with $132,000 within reach if institutional flows and adoption in sectors like remittances continue.

Risks and Downside Scenarios

Despite the bullish setup, Bitcoin's position in a "technical vacuum" with no immediate support below $91,200 until $89,000 makes it vulnerable to sharp declines. A breakdown below $91,200 could trigger a slide to $89,000, with further losses potentially reaching $85,000, according to U.Today. The 21-week SMA, currently near $90,000, is another critical level to watch, as a failure to hold it could signal the end of the rally and spark a broader market correction.

Macroeconomic uncertainties pose additional risks. President Trump's tariffs, including a 10% global tariff and 125% duties on Chinese goods, have heightened fears of inflation and a potential recession, which could dampen risk appetite for assets like Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 7, 2025, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on May 13 will be pivotal, with higher-than-expected inflation potentially triggering a sell-off. Declining trading volume, noted by U.Today, suggests that a breakout or breakdown is imminent, adding to the tension.

Market Context and Sentiment

Bitcoin's current price action is unfolding amid a broader crypto market resurgence. The aggregate market cap dipped 1.4% on May 2 despite Bitcoin's rally to $97,000, indicating lagging altcoin performance and a cooling risk appetite. However, Bitcoin's 2.14% gain to $96,000 on May 2, coupled with a 25% rise from its 2025 low, has rekindled investor interest, with some viewing it as a hedge against volatile stocks and a weakening dollar.