Bitcoin (BTC) Enters Pivotal Range: Buyers Target $100K Breakout

Bitcoin is trading within a crucial price range, where a drop below $90,000 could trigger a shift in momentum toward the downside

Bitcoin (BTC) is encountering strong resistance as bullish sentiment begins to wane, leading to a return of sellers in greater numbers, according to technical analysis.

After an impressive run that saw it test new highs for the year, the flagship cryptocurrency is now attempting to confirm the critical $92,000-$93,000 support zone as a base for continuation. However, if selling pressure continues to increase, a breakdown below this area could trigger a sharper correction and signal a potential shift in the overall trend.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights that highlight a key risk factor: in the current bull cycle, short-term holders tend to take profits once their Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) exceeds 40%.

"This level is usually reached around $95,000-$97,000 in the current cycle, and historically, it marks the point where speculators begin offloading their positions," explained Adler.

"This increases spot market supply and puts downward pressure on price, especially as institutions and funds typically hold for longer-term cycles and aren't likely to sell at these levels."

This observation is particularly relevant as Bitcoin recently showed signs of stalling after failing to sustain momentum above the $98,000 mark.

With traders growing increasingly cautious and macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on market sentiment, the coming days will be crucial for determining the next move.

"The structure remains intact for now, but BTC must hold the $92K region to avoid flipping key support into resistance," noted the analyst.

"A clean bounce from this level could revive the bullish case, but failure to hold could shift sentiment further bearish. As market participants watch closely, Bitcoin faces one of its most serious tests in this cycle. The next move may define the trend for weeks to come."

Bitcoin Enters Pivotal Range: Buyers Target $100K Breakout

Bitcoin is trading within a crucial price range, where a drop below $90,000 could trigger a shift in momentum toward the downside, while a breakout above $100,000 could spark a powerful new leg of the bull cycle.

After enduring months of selling pressure from its all-time highs, BTC is showing renewed strength and attempting to confirm a broader bullish setup for the entire market. The recent push above $92K was a key technical step, but now bulls must defend that level and build momentum toward a sustained breakout.

However, market conditions remain volatile. The current environment is shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions, creating unpredictable swings across crypto and traditional markets.

Still, Bitcoin’s price structure suggests bulls are gaining the upper hand—at least for now.

Adler shared insights on the role of short-term holders (1–3 months), who are often the most aggressive market participants. This group includes professional speculators, many of whom trade Bitcoin via ETF platforms.

Historically, in this bull cycle, when their Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) exceeds 40%, they begin to take profits, which contributes to sell pressure. Currently, NUPL sits at just 8%, with its 30-day SMA still negative at -2%, signaling that short-term holders are not yet selling in large numbers.

This low NUPL level suggests minimal immediate selling risk, which reinforces the bullish case. As long as NUPL remains subdued, Bitcoin could have room to continue climbing before profit-taking begins.

The coming days will be critical—holding above $90K and building toward $100K could open the door for a breakout, while failure to do so may usher in renewed weakness.

All eyes remain on Bitcoin as it stands at one of its most decisive moments in this cycle.

Price Action Details: Holding Strong But Facing Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading around $94,158 after a modest pullback from the recent local high near $97,000. The daily chart shows that BTC remains well above both the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,542 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $86,381, suggesting that the broader trend remains bullish.

After breaking through the key $90K level in April, Bitcoin rallied strongly but is now consolidating just below the psychological $100K resistance. Volume has started to taper off, indicating short-term indecision as bulls and bears battle for control. A continued hold above $92K would reinforce the bullish case, potentially setting the stage for a renewed breakout toward $100K and the previous cycle high of $103,600.

However, a breakdown below $92K could signal a loss of momentum and increase the likelihood of a retest of the 200-day SMA near $90K. This level now