Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance at 61.7% as Altcoin Season Index Reads Just 28

The crypto market is heavily leaning to Bitcoin's favor, with the Altcoin Season Index reading just 28. This figure is far below the 75 threshold typically required to declare a true “altcoin season,” indicating Bitcoin is still firmly in command

The crypto market is heavily leaning to Bitcoin’s (BTC) favor, with the Altcoin Season Index now reading just 28. This figure is far below the 75 threshold typically required to declare a true “altcoin season,” indicating Bitcoin is still firmly in command and outpacing the performance of most altcoins despite a recent broad market recovery.

While recent reports highlight a short-lived bounce in altcoins during Bitcoin’s surge to $105,000, the crypto behemoth’s dominance at 61.7% showcases that capital is still consolidating around BTC.

As explained in a previous analysis, for an altcoin season to unfold, we'd typically see BTC dominance decrease significantly, paving the way for altcoins to take the lead and outperform. However, that narrative hasn't unfolded yet.

On-chain data also supports this BTC-centric scenario. The Short-Term Holder MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is currently at 1.09, signaling more room for Bitcoin to move up.

According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the next key selling pressure could emerge around 1.25 (≈$118K) and again at 1.35 (≈$128K). If current momentum holds, Adler forecasts these levels could be reached by early to late June, keeping the focus squarely on Bitcoin in the near term.

At the same time, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have started to take profits. Data from May 13 shows LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) hit 2.27, meaning many coins are being sold at a 227% gain.

This is a classic signal of distribution–long-term investors locking in profits before potential pullbacks. The last time LTHs showed such behavior, Bitcoin faced noticeable corrections shortly after.

The Total3 chart (crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) reveals a mixed picture for altcoins. After bouncing off the 0.618 Fibonacci level (~$892 billion), Total3 was rejected near the 0.786 retracement (~$923 billion). RSI is sitting at 63, which is bullish but not overheated. MACD remains in a positive crossover, hinting at continued upside.

However, without a decisive break above $962 billion (previous high), the altcoin market remains vulnerable to BTC-led market dynamics.

Until then, the market remains firmly in Bitcoin Season, with altcoin dominance on hold and profit-taking behavior from veteran BTC holders shaping the next phase.