Bitcoin (BTC) Accumulation Trend Score Suggests Cooldown For Mega Whales

On-chain data shows the largest of whales on the Bitcoin network have slowed down their buying recently. Here's what this could mean for BTC.

On-chain data from Glassnode suggests that the largest of whales on the Bitcoin network have slowed down on their buying recently.

Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Suggests Mega Whales Cooldown

In a recent post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shared the latest update on the Accumulation Trend Score for the various Bitcoin investor cohorts.

The ‘Accumulation Trend Score’ here is an indicator that tells us whether the BTC investors are accumulating or not. The metric determines its value by not only looking at the balance changes happening in the investors’ wallets but also referring to the size of the wallets themselves. This means that larger investors have a higher weightage in the indicator.

When the Accumulation Trend Score is above 0.5, it means the large investors (or alternatively, a large number of small holders) are in a phase of accumulation. On the other hand, being under this threshold implies the dominance of distribution in the market. These behaviors are at their strongest at the extreme points of 0 and 1.

Now, here is the chart posted by the analytics firm, which shows the trend in the Accumulation Trend Score separately for the different Bitcoin holder groups over the past year:

As displayed in the above graph, the investors on the lower end of the market (the below 1 BTC and 1 to 10 BTC cohorts) have their Accumulation Trend Score under 0.5, which implies they are distributing.

The story is different for the larger cohorts, who are in a phase of accumulation. The metric is sitting at 0.8 for the sharks (holders carrying 100 to 1,000 BTC) and at 0.9 for the whales (1,000 to 10,000 BTC), implying a strong trend of buying.

One cohort stands out in its Accumulation Trend Score, however, the ‘mega whales’ holding more than 10,000 BTC. From the chart, it’s visible that this cohort shifted from distribution to accumulation earlier in the year, ahead of the rest of the market and obtained a near-perfect score on the indicator.

Recently, though, the group has shown another shift, as the metric’s value has come down to around 0.5 for its members. This suggests the cohort’s trend is now neutral. It’s possible that these humongous investors backing off on accumulation could have a negative impact on the ongoing Bitcoin rally.

That said, at least for now, the sharks and whales are still supporting the run. During the rally from the last couple of months of 2024, the mega whales took to light distribution, but the rest of the market continued to accumulate, providing fuel for the run.

The rally ended when the mega whales took to heavy distribution. Just like how the buying from the cohort this year came ahead of the rest, this selloff also arrived before the rest could move.

Considering this smart-money behavior from the mega whales, their Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score could be to keep an eye on.

BTC Price

The Bitcoin rally has stalled during the last few few days as the cryptocurrency is still trading around the $104,000 mark.