US-based crypto trading platforms regaining influence over Bitcoin's (BTC) token transfer volumes could kick-start a rally in the second half of 2025.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr pointed out that the "US vs. off-shore ratio," which measures token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges

US-based crypto trading platforms are regaining influence over Bitcoin's (BTC) token transfer volumes, which could possibly kick-start a rally in the second half of 2025.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr pointed out that the "US vs. off-shore ratio," which measures token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges, indicated a drop in dominance from US exchanges after BTC reached an all-time high in January.

As illustrated in the chart, a trend reversal is underway, which implies BTC transfer volumes on US exchanges are beginning to rise again, aligning with previous bull market rallies.

A key technical indicator in the chart is the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 365-day SMA. Historically, this crossover has preceded major price rallies. For example, when this signal occurred at $60,000, Bitcoin began a rally within one week. This suggests a potential price surge may occur in the coming weeks.

Likewise, verified onchain analyst Boris Vest said Bitcoin is still undervalued. In a quick take post on CryptoQuant, the analyst explained that Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to 2018 levels, with only 2.43 million BTC held on exchanges compared to 3.4 million in 2021, indicating long-term holding and reduced supply.

The Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) at 14.3 highlighted that significant purchasing power remains, as the ratio is below 2021 levels. Boris said,

"This indicates that there is still room for new highs in the current bull market."

Bitcoin flips key monthly indicator, opening a path to $90K

Markets analyst Dom highlighted that Bitcoin's recent multi-month downtrend breakout coincides with BTC flipping the monthly VWAP into support for the first time since January.

The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a technical indicator that calculates the average price weighted by trading volume. Traders use VWAP to assess trend shifts, identify support or resistance, and gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold.

Dom said,

"This is the first time since January that we've seen this pivot, and it's a key indicator of a potential shift in momentum."

However, Alphractal founder João Wedson remained cautious with Bitcoin as it hovers near the $86,000 mark.

He explained that waiting for a pullback if Bitcoin breaks above this level is the right approach, or bearish control might prevail. This echoes Alphractal's analysis of $86,300 as a key resistance zone with the potential of becoming a bull trap.