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低流通量加密货币的大部分代币供应尚未解锁,占市值前 300 名加密货币的 21.3%。其中,Worldcoin (WLD) 的市值与完全摊薄估值 (FDV) 比率最低,为 0.02,其次是 Cheele (CHEEL),为 0.06,Starknet (STRK) 为 0.07,Saga (SAGA) 为 0.09。大多数低流通量加密货币都是在过去四年中推出的,这凸显了近期代币发行量的增加。
Low Float Crypto: A Comprehensive Analysis of Market Dynamics and Implications
低流通量加密货币:市场动态和影响的综合分析
Introduction
介绍
The cryptocurrency market presents a diverse landscape of assets with varying supply and distribution characteristics. Among these assets, low float cryptocurrencies have emerged as a significant segment, capturing attention due to their unique market dynamics and potential implications for investors.
加密货币市场呈现出多样化的资产格局,具有不同的供应和分配特征。在这些资产中,低流通量加密货币已成为一个重要的部分,由于其独特的市场动态和对投资者的潜在影响而引起人们的关注。
Prevalence and Distribution of Low Float Crypto
低流通量加密货币的流行和分布
According to a recent study conducted by CoinGecko, low float crypto accounts for approximately 21.3% of the top 300 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, as of May 8, 2024. This indicates that for every one out of five large-cap crypto assets, a significant portion of their token supply remains locked and unavailable for circulation.
根据 CoinGecko 最近进行的一项研究,截至 2024 年 5 月 8 日,低流通量加密货币约占市值前 300 名加密货币的 21.3%。这表明,每 5 个大型加密资产中就有一个他们的代币供应的很大一部分仍然被锁定并且无法流通。
The study further identified Worldcoin (WLD), Cheelee (CHEEL), Starknet (STRK), and Saga (SAGA) as the four cryptocurrencies with the lowest float, exhibiting market capitalization to fully diluted valuation (FDV) ratios below 0.1. Notably, these four assets were all launched within the past two years (2023 or 2024), highlighting the recent emergence of low float cryptocurrencies.
该研究进一步确定 Worldcoin (WLD)、Cheelee (CHEEL)、Starknet (STRK) 和 Saga (SAGA) 是流通量最低的四种加密货币,其市值与完全稀释估值 (FDV) 比率低于 0.1。值得注意的是,这四种资产都是在过去两年内(2023 年或 2024 年)推出的,凸显了近期低流通量加密货币的出现。
Supply Dynamics and Market Pressure
供应动态和市场压力
The vast majority of low float cryptocurrencies are relatively new entrants to the market, with 84% of them having been launched within the past four years. This influx of new tokens with significant locked supply suggests a potential increase in supply overhang in the future as more tokens are released into circulation.
绝大多数低流通量加密货币都是市场上相对较新的进入者,其中 84% 是在过去四年内推出的。大量锁定供应的新代币涌入表明,随着更多代币进入流通,未来供应过剩可能会增加。
Consequently, the upcoming token unlocks associated with these low float cryptocurrencies could exert downward pressure on the crypto market, potentially contributing to price volatility and market downturns.
因此,即将到来的与这些低流通量加密货币相关的代币解锁可能会对加密货币市场施加下行压力,可能导致价格波动和市场低迷。
Fully Diluted Market Capitalization
完全稀释市值
In contrast to low float cryptocurrencies, approximately 74 of the top 300 cryptocurrencies have fully diluted market capitalizations, with market capitalization to FDV ratios equal to 1. This implies that these assets have already fully distributed their token supply, with no further dilution expected.
与低流通量加密货币相比,前 300 种加密货币中约有 74 种的市值已完全稀释,市值与 FDV 的比率等于 1。这意味着这些资产已经完全分配了其代币供应,预计不会进一步稀释。
Interestingly, the majority of fully diluted cryptocurrencies (62%) were launched prior to 2021, suggesting that earlier projects have reached a more mature stage of their token distribution cycles.
有趣的是,大多数完全稀释的加密货币(62%)是在 2021 年之前推出的,这表明早期项目的代币分配周期已达到更成熟的阶段。
Influence of Memecoins
模因币的影响
Among the fully diluted cryptocurrencies, memecoins have gained significant traction in recent years. Notably, 14 of the 74 fully diluted cryptocurrencies are classified as memecoins, and they constitute a majority of the fully diluted tokens launched in 2023 and 2024.
在完全稀释的加密货币中,模因币近年来获得了巨大的关注。值得注意的是,74 种完全稀释的加密货币中有 14 种被归类为模因币,它们构成了 2023 年和 2024 年推出的完全稀释代币的大部分。
This observation reflects the growing popularity of memecoins as a significant narrative within the crypto market, driven by viral social media campaigns and speculative trading.
这一观察结果反映出,在病毒式社交媒体活动和投机交易的推动下,模因币作为加密货币市场中的重要叙事越来越受欢迎。
High Float Crypto: A Substantial Market Segment
高流通量加密货币:一个巨大的市场领域
While low float and fully diluted cryptocurrencies represent significant segments of the top 300 cryptocurrencies, high float cryptocurrencies comprise the largest portion, accounting for approximately 54% of the total. These assets have already unlocked more than half of their token supply, indicating a more established distribution network.
虽然低流通量和完全稀释的加密货币在前 300 种加密货币中占有重要地位,但高流通量加密货币所占比例最大,约占总数的 54%。这些资产已经释放了一半以上的代币供应,这表明分配网络更加成熟。
In particular, a significant proportion (28.7%) of high float cryptocurrencies are approaching a fully diluted state, with market capitalization to FDV ratios of 0.80 or higher. Examples of such cryptocurrencies include Maker (MKR), Aave (AAVE), and Near Protocol (NEAR), all of which have their FDV close to their market capitalization.
特别是,很大一部分(28.7%)的高流通量加密货币正接近完全稀释状态,市值与 FDV 之比为 0.80 或更高。此类加密货币的例子包括 Maker (MKR)、Aave (AAVE) 和 Near Protocol (NEAR),所有这些货币的 FDV 都接近其市值。
Market Share Distribution
市场份额分布
As of 2024, the distribution of cryptocurrencies based on their float and market capitalization to FDV ratios is as follows:
截至 2024 年,加密货币根据其流通量和市值与 FDV 比率的分布如下:
- Fully Diluted: 24.67%
- High Float: 54.00%
- Low Float: 21.33%
Methodology and Limitations
完全稀释:24.67% 高流通量:54.00% 低流通量:21.33% 方法和局限性
The study utilized CoinGecko data for the market capitalization to fully diluted valuation (FDV) ratio of the top 300 cryptocurrencies, ranked by market capitalization on May 8, 2024. Stablecoins and wrapped assets were excluded from the analysis. For cryptocurrencies without a maximum supply, fully diluted valuation was assumed to be equivalent to market capitalization.
该研究利用 CoinGecko 数据计算了 2024 年 5 月 8 日按市值排名的前 300 种加密货币的市值与完全摊薄估值 (FDV) 的比率。分析中排除了稳定币和打包资产。对于没有最大供应量的加密货币,假设完全摊薄估值等于市值。
Low float cryptocurrencies were defined as those with market capitalization to FDV ratios between 0 and 0.49, while high float cryptocurrencies had ratios between 0.50 and 0.99. Only cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization to FDV ratio of 1 were considered fully diluted.
低流通量加密货币被定义为市值与 FDV 比率在 0 到 0.49 之间的加密货币,而高流通量加密货币的比率在 0.50 到 0.99 之间。只有市值与 FDV 比率为 1 的加密货币才被视为完全稀释。
It is important to note that this study is intended for illustrative and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors should always conduct thorough research and exercise caution before investing in any cryptocurrency or financial asset.
值得注意的是,本研究仅供说明和参考之用,不应被视为财务建议。在投资任何加密货币或金融资产之前,投资者应始终进行彻底的研究并谨慎行事。
Conclusion
结论
Low float cryptocurrencies represent a significant and growing segment of the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. These assets possess a unique combination of large locked supply and the potential for future dilution, which could impact market dynamics in the coming years.
按市值计算,低流通量加密货币代表了顶级加密货币的重要且不断增长的部分。这些资产拥有大量锁定供应和未来稀释潜力的独特组合,这可能会影响未来几年的市场动态。
While fully diluted cryptocurrencies have reached a more mature stage of token distribution and high float cryptocurrencies have established a wider distribution network, the emergence of low float cryptocurrencies warrants close monitoring and consideration by investors.
虽然完全稀释的加密货币已经达到了更成熟的代币发行阶段,高流通量加密货币已经建立了更广泛的流通网络,但低流通量加密货币的出现值得投资者密切关注和考虑。
Understanding the supply and distribution characteristics of different cryptocurrencies is crucial for informed decision-making and risk management within the complex and evolving crypto market landscape.
了解不同加密货币的供应和分配特征对于在复杂且不断变化的加密货币市场格局中做出明智的决策和风险管理至关重要。
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