加密公牛跑，山寨币季节和动力增长：我们到了吗？

比特币的新高点标志着公牛的奔跑，但替代币季节的确认正在审理中。流动性提升和ETH/BTC比率为希望提供了希望，但耐心是关键。

Crypto Bull Run, Altcoin Season, and Momentum Gains: Are We There Yet?

加密公牛跑，山寨币季节和动力增长：我们到了吗？

The crypto market is buzzing! Bitcoin's been tearing it up, hitting new all-time highs, and everyone's whispering about altcoin season and those sweet, sweet momentum gains. But are we really there yet? Let's dive in.

加密市场正在嗡嗡作响！比特币一直在撕毁它，达到了新的历史最高点，每个人都对山寨币季节以及那些甜美，甜美的动力增长。但是我们真的在那里吗？让我们潜水。

Bitcoin's Breakout: A New Bull Cycle?

比特币的突破：一个新的公牛周期？

Bitcoin has officially smashed past $118,000, reaching a new all-time high. Virtual Bacon, a well-known crypto analyst, believes this marks the beginning of a major bull cycle. Historically, Bitcoin leads the charge in the early stages, with altcoins following as liquidity shifts. This breakout confirms the beginning of a new cycle, but it's not a free pass to go all-in on just any crypto.

比特币已正式砸碎了118,000美元，达到了新的高潮。著名的加密分析师Virtual Bacon认为这标志着主要牛周期的开始。从历史上看，比特币在早期阶段领导了指控，随着流动性的转移，山寨币的指控。这次突破证实了一个新周期的开始，但是只能在任何加密货币上全力以赴。

Altcoin Season: Close, But No Cigar (Yet)

Altcoin季节：关闭，但还没有雪茄（尚未）

While Bitcoin's dominance has dipped slightly, it's not the all-clear for altcoins just yet. Keep a close eye on the ETH/BTC ratio, as strength in Ethereum (and Solana) can signal a rotation. But don't jump the gun! We need more confirmation before declaring a full-blown altcoin season.

虽然比特币的主导地位略有下降，但目前尚不清楚Altcoins的全明确。密切关注ETH/BTC的比率，因为以太坊（和Solana）的强度可以发出旋转的信号。但是不要跳枪！在宣布成熟的Altcoin赛季之前，我们需要更多的确认。

The Fed's Quiet Hand: Liquidity Injections

美联储安静的手：流动性注射

The Federal Reserve is playing a sneaky game, quietly injecting liquidity into the markets. These actions boost bank reserves, allowing for more lending and increasing overall financial liquidity. Plus, the Global Liquidity Index is showing promising signs. If it breaks above previous highs, that's another green light for altseason.

美联储正在玩偷偷摸摸的游戏，将流动性悄悄地注入市场。这些行动促进了银行储备，从而增加了更多的贷款并增加了整体财务流动性。另外，全球流动性指数显示出有希望的迹象。如果它超过了以前的高点，那将是Altseason的另一个绿灯。

Technical Signals and Macro Conditions

技术信号和宏观条件

Kevin, known as @Kev_Capital_TA online, pointed to Tether dominance (USDT.D) as a key indicator. He argued that a drop to 3.70 percent in USDT.D is necessary for a sustainable rally in risk assets. He also highlighted Bitcoin's hash-ribbon indicator, linking on-chain data to macro conditions like inflation. If “Truthflation” stays below 2 percent, easing policies are likely, further fueling the bull run.

凯文（Kevin）被称为@kev_capital_ta Online，指出Tether Dominance（USDT.D）是关键指标。他辩称，对于可持续的风险资产集会而言，必须降至3.70％。他还强调了比特币的哈希 - 丝带指标，将链上数据与宏观条件等通货膨胀联系起来。如果“真相”保持在2％以下，则可能会放松政策，从而进一步加剧了公牛的运行。

The Altcoin Rotation Thesis

altcoin旋转论文

Ethereum's market share is showing signs of recovery, with monthly MACD, Stochastic RSI, and Market Cipher signals turning up. Early gains in ETH-beta names like Chainlink and Uniswap suggest the beginning of a broader altcoin run. However, Kevin warns against waiting for official confirmation from central banks; the market will sniff out rate cuts before they are announced.

以太坊的市场份额显示出恢复的迹象，每月MACD，随机RSI和市场密码信号正在出现。 ETH-BETA名称（例如ChainLink和Uniswap）的早期收益表明，更广泛的Altcoin运行开始。但是，凯文警告不要等待中央银行的官方确认；市场将在宣布之前忽略降低利率。

What to Watch For: Confirmation is Key

要注意的是：确认是关键

Before diving headfirst into altcoins, wait for confirmation. This includes:

在首先潜入山寨币之前，请等待确认。这包括：

• A sustained drop in Bitcoin dominance.
• Continued strength in ETH/BTC and other major altcoin pairs.
• Breakthroughs in the Global Liquidity Index.

Analysts also point to technical factors like the monthly RSI on Bitcoin dominance, MACD crossovers, and breaks of key support lines as signs of a potential altcoin season.

分析师还指出了技术因素，例如关于比特币优势，MACD交叉和关键支撑线断裂的每月RSI，这是潜在的AltCoin季节的迹象。

Personal Perspective

个人观点

While the allure of quick gains in altcoins is tempting, patience is paramount. I'm keeping a close eye on those macro indicators and waiting for that sweet, sweet confirmation before making any major moves. Remember, slow and steady wins the race (or at least avoids getting rekt).

虽然Altcoins快速收益的诱惑是诱人的，但耐心至关重要。我密切关注那些宏观指示器，并在进行任何重大动作之前等待甜蜜的甜蜜确认。请记住，缓慢而稳定会赢得比赛（或至少避免获得REKT）。

The Bottom Line

底线

Bitcoin is shining, and altcoins are showing promise, but proceed with caution. Don't FOMO into low-cap coins based on hype. Stick to large-cap coins showing early strength, keep an eye on those macro signals, and remember, a little patience can save you a whole lot of heartache. The real bull run *might* be here, but let's make sure we're not just seeing things through rose-colored glasses!

比特币闪闪发光，山寨币表现出希望，但要谨慎行事。不要基于炒作将低量表硬币变成低位硬币。坚持使用早期强度的大型硬币，密切注意那些宏观信号，并记住，一点耐心可以为您节省很多心痛。真正的公牛可能会在这里 *，但请确保我们不仅仅是通过玫瑰色眼镜看到东西！

So, buckle up, crypto fam! It's gonna be a wild ride. Let's hope we all make it to the moon in one piece! 😉🚀

因此，扣紧，加密货币fam！这将是一个疯狂的旅程。希望我们所有人都能一块月球登上月球！ 😉🚀