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本周的 Bankless 时事通讯讨论了以太坊在当前牛市周期中的前景。一些投资者认为 ETH 的表现将逊于比特币或勉强击败比特币,这一观点受到 Coinbase L2 链上 Memecoin 和 SocialFi 崛起的影响。然而,作者认为以太坊仍然是一项强大的投资,凸显了其生态系统的增长和创新潜力。
Will This Cycle Skip Ethereum?
这个周期会跳过以太坊吗?
Introduction
介绍
As the cryptocurrency market enters a potential new bull cycle, investors are speculating on the prospects of various digital assets, particularly Ethereum (ETH). Some experts believe that this cycle may present a unique divergence from previous trends, with ETH experiencing muted performance compared to Bitcoin (BTC).
随着加密货币市场进入潜在的新牛市周期,投资者正在猜测各种数字资产的前景,特别是以太坊(ETH)。一些专家认为,这一周期可能会与之前的趋势出现独特的背离,与比特币 (BTC) 相比,以太坊的表现疲软。
Historical Context
历史背景
In previous bull cycles, ETH has typically outperformed BTC, driven by factors such as increased demand for decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem. However, this cycle has been characterized by a different market dynamic, with BTC regaining dominance and ETH facing increasing competition from Layer 2 blockchains and alternative smart contract platforms.
在之前的牛市周期中,受去中心化金融(DeFi)、不可替代代币(NFT)需求增加以及以太坊生态系统扩张等因素的推动,ETH 的表现通常优于 BTC。然而,这一周期的特点是不同的市场动态,BTC 重新占据主导地位,而 ETH 面临来自 Layer 2 区块链和替代智能合约平台的日益激烈的竞争。
Factors Contributing to the Skip Thesis
导致跳过论文的因素
1. Macroeconomic Uncertainties:
1. 宏观经济的不确定性:
The global economy is facing significant challenges, including inflation, geopolitical tensions, and slowing economic growth. These factors could lead investors to favor more conservative assets, such as BTC, which is perceived as a store of value.
全球经济正面临重大挑战,包括通货膨胀、地缘政治紧张局势和经济增长放缓。这些因素可能会导致投资者青睐更保守的资产,例如被视为价值储存手段的比特币。
2. Layer 2 Scaling Solutions:
2. 二层扩容解决方案:
Layer 2 solutions, such as Polygon, Optimism, and Arbitrum, have emerged as viable alternatives to Ethereum, offering faster transaction speeds and lower costs. These solutions could siphon off development activity and user demand from Ethereum, limiting its growth potential.
Polygon、Optimism 和 Arbitrum 等 Layer 2 解决方案已成为以太坊的可行替代方案,提供更快的交易速度和更低的成本。这些解决方案可能会吸走以太坊的开发活动和用户需求,从而限制其增长潜力。
3. Alternative Smart Contract Platforms:
3.替代智能合约平台:
Projects like Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot have made significant strides in offering scalable and cost-effective smart contract platforms. These platforms could attract developers and users away from Ethereum, further diluting its market share.
Solana、Avalanche 和 Polkadot 等项目在提供可扩展且具有成本效益的智能合约平台方面取得了重大进展。这些平台可能会吸引开发者和用户远离以太坊,进一步稀释其市场份额。
4. Regulatory Scrutiny:
4. 监管审查:
Ethereum is facing increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the United States. This could lead to restrictions or limitations on the development and deployment of DeFi and other blockchain applications on Ethereum, hindering its growth.
以太坊正面临越来越严格的监管审查,尤其是在美国。这可能会导致以太坊上 DeFi 和其他区块链应用程序的开发和部署受到限制或限制,从而阻碍其增长。
5. Technical Challenges:
5. 技术挑战:
Ethereum is still facing technical challenges, including high gas fees and network congestion. These issues could impede the scalability and usability of the platform, making it less attractive to users and developers.
以太坊仍面临技术挑战,包括高额汽油费和网络拥堵。这些问题可能会阻碍平台的可扩展性和可用性,从而降低对用户和开发人员的吸引力。
Outlook and Implications
展望与影响
While the "skip thesis" suggests muted performance for ETH in this cycle, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable. Ethereum remains a dominant force in the blockchain ecosystem, with a strong community and a vibrant developer ecosystem.
虽然“跳过论点”表明 ETH 在本周期中表现平淡,但值得注意的是,加密货币市场高度波动且不可预测。以太坊仍然是区块链生态系统的主导力量,拥有强大的社区和充满活力的开发者生态系统。
Investors should carefully consider the factors discussed above and conduct their own research before making investment decisions. It is prudent to diversify portfolios and invest in a range of digital assets, including both BTC and ETH, to mitigate potential risks and maximize returns.
投资者在做出投资决定之前应仔细考虑上述因素并进行自己的研究。谨慎的做法是实现投资组合多元化,投资于包括 BTC 和 ETH 在内的一系列数字资产,以降低潜在风险并实现回报最大化。
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