比特币（BTC）的价格保持其看涨势头，但情绪指标表明市场可能过热

比特币的价格保持了看涨的势头，但情绪指标表明市场可能过热。数据突出显示比特币交易者以利润为单位，而偏见的市场倾向于渴望。

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

Bitcoin price maintains its bullish momentum, but a sentiment indicator suggests the market could be getting hot.

比特币的价格保持了看涨的势头，但情绪指标表明市场可能越来越热。

Data highlights Bitcoin traders taking profits and a lopsided market angled toward longs.

数据突出显示比特币交易者以利润为单位，而偏见的市场倾向于渴望。

Analysts highlight a potential short-term correction, especially if gold weakens or considering seasonality trends.

分析师强调了潜在的短期校正，尤其是当黄金削弱或考虑季节性趋势时。

Optimism has returned to the crypto market as many traders believe Bitcoin (BTC) price is now en route to a new all-time high. In just one month, Bitcoin surged 39%, briefly crossing the $105,000 mark. According to Glassnode analysts, “there are signs of renewed market strength, and the market is trading within a profit-dominated regime.”

由于许多交易者认为比特币（BTC）价格现在已经达到了新的历史最高水平，因此乐观恢复了加密市场。在短短一个月内，比特币飙升了39％，短暂地超越了105,000美元。根据GlassNode分析师的说法，“有新的市场实力的迹象，市场正在以利润为主的政权范围内进行交易。”

Still, some investors are already taking profits, pushing Bitcoin’s realized cap to an all-time high of $889 billion. Even more profit-taking is expected at the $106,000 level.

尽管如此，一些投资者已经在获利，将比特币的实现上限提高到了8.89亿美元的历史最高点。预计将在106,000美元的水平上获得更多的利润。

Historically, euphoric market sentiment has often led to periods of consolidation—or even sharp corrections. That risk may be growing, particularly as gold, whose price action Bitcoin has closely mirrored in recent months, is showing signs of fatigue and could be heading for a correction itself.

从历史上看，欣快的市场情绪通常导致了巩固时期，甚至彻底的纠正。这种风险可能正在增长，尤其是因为黄金近几个月来的价格动作比特币紧密反映了黄金，这表现出疲劳的迹象，并且可能正采取更正。

Most investors are back in profit

大多数投资者都回来了

The recent Bitcoin rally has returned over 3 million BTC to a profitable state, according to Glassnode. This shift has reignited capital inflows, which exceeded $1 billion per day, suggesting strong demand-side interest and a market capable of absorbing selling pressure. Even most short-term holders who were underwater since the December 2024 peak have seen their portfolios turn green.

据GlassNode称，最近的比特币集会已将超过300万BTC恢复到一个有利可图的状态。这种转变重新点燃了每天超过10亿美元的资本流入，这表明需求方面的利息和能够吸收销售压力的市场。自2024年12月峰以来，甚至大多数在水下的短期持有人都看到他们的投资组合变成了绿色。

This financial and psychological relief is already translating into spending behavior. The net difference between short-term holders’ transfer volume in profit vs. at a loss has swung sharply to +20%—a notable reversal from the -20% seen during the capitulation phase at the end of April.

这种财务和心理救济已经转化为支出行为。短期持有人在利润中的转移量与以损失的损失急剧下降到 +20％之间的净差异 - 显着逆转了4月底的投降阶段的-20％。

Credit: Glassnode

学分：玻璃节

Institutional investor confidence is also rebounding. Over the past three weeks, more than $5.7 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, according to CoinGlass. The total assets under management held within the U.S. spot ETFs have now climbed to over 1.26 million BTC, a new all-time high.

机构投资者的信心也在反弹。根据Coinglass的说法，在过去的三周中，超过57亿美元流入了比特币ETF。现在，美国ETF境内持有的管理总资产已经攀升至超过126万BTC，这是一个新的历史最高水平。

Is crypto trader sentiment too euphoric right now?

加密交易者情绪现在是否也很欣喜？

With so much momentum, it’s easy to imagine a moonshot. But that same momentum may be cause for caution. BTC’s open interest has climbed to $68 billion, nearly an all-time high, suggesting a heavily positioned market. In such conditions, even a small catalyst could spark an outsized move—up or down.

有了如此多的动力，很容易想象一个月球。但是同样的势头可能会引起谨慎。 BTC的开放兴趣已攀升至680亿美元，几乎是历史最高的，这表明市场位置很大。在这种情况下，即使是小型催化剂也可能会引发一个超大的动作，或者下降。

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, warns that Bitcoin might be getting a bit ahead of itself. He recently shared Bitwise’s internal Cryptoasset Sentiment Index, which has reached its highest level since November 2024. The index, which includes 15 sub-indicators spanning sentiment, flows, onchain data, and derivatives (such as the perpetual funding rate and put-call volume ratio), now shows an overheated market.

Bitwise Asset Management研究负责人AndréDragosch警告说，比特币可能会有所领先。他最近分享了Bitwise的内部加密情绪指数，该指数已达到自2024年11月以来的最高水平。该指数包括15个子指标，涉及情绪，流量，OnChain数据和衍生品（例如永久融资率和Put-all-Pall批量比率），现在显示出过度燃烧的市场。

In his own comments to Dragosch, who is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg, adds that he remains “structurally constructive” on cryptocurrencies until the end of 2025. He names the ongoing accumulation of BTC by corporations and ETPs, which continues to deplete Bitcoin on-exchange balances despite the recent price rally.

在他对彭博经常贡献者的Dragosch的评论中，他补充说，直到2025年底，他仍然在加密货币上“在结构上具有建设性”。他列举了公司和ETP的BTC持续积累，尽管尽管最近的价格集合了最近的价格，但该公司仍继续耗尽比特币余额。

Potential crypto market headwinds

潜在的加密市场逆风

Several risks could challenge Bitcoin in the short term.

短期内，几种风险可能会挑战比特币。

For Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, renewed regulatory uncertainty is a top concern, especially after the Senate stalled stablecoin legislation last week.

对于Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan来说，更新的监管不确定性是最关心的问题，尤其是在参议院上周停滞的Stablecoin立法之后。

Broader shifts in market behavior may also be at play. Since March 2025, Bitcoin has shown a stronger correlation with gold than with equities. That shift followed dramatic changes in U.S. policy, which appeared to capital into politically neutral assets: both Bitcoin and gold rose 22% (the latter since corrected to a 13% gain). At the same time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 merely clawed back earlier losses.

市场行为的更广泛转变也可能正在发挥作用。自2025年3月以来，比特币与黄金的相关性比与股票更强。这一转变是在美国政策发生巨大变化之后，这些政策似乎归入政治中立的资产：比特币和黄金上涨了22％（后者自从纠正至13％的收益）。同时，标准普尔500指数和NASDAQ-100仅降低了较早的损失。

This divergence continues on shorter time frames. Since May 12, major U.S. indexes gained 3% to 4% on positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations, but Bitcoin barely budged. Meanwhile, gold has started printing lower highs—an early signal of a downtrend, as noted by analyst Michael Van de Poppe. If gold enters a corrective phase, Bitcoin might follow suit.

这种分歧在较短的时间范围内继续。自5月12日以来，美国少校指数在美国 - 中国贸易关系的积极发展方面上涨了3％至4％，但比特币几乎没有兴起。同时，正如分析师迈克尔·范·德·波普（Michael van de Poppe）指出的那样，黄金已经开始打印较低的高点，这是下降趋势的早期信号。如果黄金进入纠正阶段，则比特币可能会效仿。

Finally, seasonality may play a role. The adage “Sell in May and go away” has some historical backing. As analyst Daan Crypto Trades notes, May has typically been a green month for Bitcoin (averaging over 8%), while June and September are often the worst-performing months.

最后，季节性可能起作用。格言“五月份出售”有一些历史支持。正如分析师Daan Crypto Trades指出的那样，梅通常是比特币的绿色月（平均8％），而六月和9月通常是表现最差的月份。

“People like to say that technical analysis doesn't work in bear markets and fundamental

人们喜欢说技术分析在熊市和基本