比特币（BTC）NVT比率超过2xSD，市场观察者将目光转向链信号

一位著名的加密分析师Burak Kesmeci最近在X上发布了有关比特币高级网络价值（NVT）度量标准的峰值。

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding strong above the $100,000 mark after a robust weekly climb, with analysts now turning their attention to on-chain signals that could change the course of its price movement.

每周稳定的攀登之后，比特币（BTC）的强劲表现高于100,000美元，分析师现在将注意力转向可能改变其价格变动的链链信号。

Bitcoin Advanced NVT Surges Past 2xSD

比特币高级NVT超过2xSD

比特币高级NVT超过2xSD

A well-known crypto analyst, Burak Kesmeci, recently posted on X about a spike in the Bitcoin Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) metric. The Advanced NVT is now sitting above a key threshold that often signals major price moves. This could mean Bitcoin is either preparing for a large price rally or facing a major correction.

一位著名的加密分析师Burak Kesmeci最近在X上发布了有关比特币高级网络价值（NVT）度量标准的峰值。高级NVT现在正坐在关键阈值之上，这通常标志着主要价格转移。这可能意味着比特币要么为大型价格集会做准备，要么面临重大纠正。

Bitcoin's Advanced NVT has again moved past the 2xSD level.

比特币的高级NVT再次超过了2XSD级别。

Usually, it doesn't stay at this level for long, and often appears right before a steep upward or downward movement.

通常，它不会长时间保持这种水平，并且经常出现在向上或向下移动之前。

During the ETF rally, NVT surged well beyond 4xSD levels. However, with a parabolic rally, it is… pic.buffer.cc/G7R3nB7DqI

在ETF拉力赛期间，NVT急剧上升到4xSD的水平上。但是，随着抛物线集会，它是…pic.buffer.cc/g7r3nb7dqi

— burak kesmeci (@burak_kesmeci) September 24, 2024

-Burak Kesmeci（@burak_kesmeci）2024年9月24日

The Advanced NVT is an updated and more sophisticated iteration of the original NVT indicator, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market cap and its daily blockchain transaction volume in dollars. When the Advanced NVT rises above its long-term moving average by over two standard deviations (2xSD), it indicates that the cryptocurrency's value is growing faster than the activity on its blockchain. In the past, this mismatch has led to either sharp rallies or steep corrections in Bitcoin's price.

Advanced NVT是原始NVT指标的更新且更复杂的迭代，该指标衡量了比特币的市值与每日区块链交易量（以美元）之间的关系。当高级NVT上升到其长期移动平均线以上时，超过两个标准偏差（2xSD）时，这表明加密货币的值的增长速度快于其区块链上的活动。过去，这种不匹配导致了急剧的集会或比特币价格陡峭的校正。

Kesmeci noted that Bitcoin's Advanced NVT has once again moved past the 2xSD level. While this level doesn't usually sustain for extended periods, it often appears shortly before a substantial upward or downward movement in price. During the ETF rally, NVT surged to levels well beyond 4xSD as Bitcoin experienced a rapid price increase.

Kesmeci指出，比特币的高级NVT再次超过了2XSD级别。尽管此水平通常不长期存在，但通常不久才出现在价格上涨或向下的价格下降之前。在ETF集会期间，随着比特币的价格快速上涨，NVT飙升至4xSD的水平。

However, with a parabolic rally, it could move much higher than 4xSD. This has happened before with the ETF rally after the approval of Spot ETFs.

但是，在抛物线集会的情况下，它的移动可能高于4xSD。在批准现场ETF之后，ETF集会以前发生了。

But, staying above this level might be unusual, and it doesn't necessarily mean it must fall back. Bitcoin could remain at this level if the market continues its bullish momentum.

但是，保持高于此级别可能是不寻常的，这并不一定意味着它必须退缩。如果市场继续其看涨势头，则比特币可能会保持在这个水平。

Stable Funding Rate Indicates Calm Climb AHead?

稳定的融资率表明镇定攀登？

稳定的融资率表明镇定攀登？

Another voice in the crypto space, CryptoQuant's analyst Crypto Dan, added to the discussion by examining another signal: the Bitcoin funding rate. This tool helps determine when traders are leaning too heavily in one direction, which can then factor into market shifts.

加密货币空间中的另一个声音是加密货币的分析师加密丹（Crypto Dan），通过检查另一个信号：比特币融资率。该工具有助于确定交易者何时朝着一个方向倾斜，这可能会导致市场转变。

According to Dan, the funding rate is now stable and well below the danger zone.

根据丹的说法，现在的资金率稳定，远低于危险区域。

The Market is No Longer Overheated.

市场不再过热。

✍️ In March and November 2024, when the Bitcoin funding rate remained above 0.1, the market quickly pulled back after those periods. This signaled that traders were too optimistic and leveraged.

✍️在2024年3月和11月，当比特币融资率保持在0.1以上时，在那段时间之后，市场迅速退缩。这表明交易者过于乐观和利用。

Now, the funding rate has stayed below 0.01 for… pic.twitter.com/uR2zM81L7v

现在，用于…pic.twitter.com/UR2ZM81L7V的资金率一直保持在0.01以下

— CryptoQuant Analyst Dan (@quant_analyst) September 24, 2024

- 2024年9月24日

"The Market is No Longer Overheated," stated Dan. He referenced the funding rate's history, especially when it remained above 0.1 during March and November 2024. During those times, the market experienced a swift pullback after those periods, hinting at an excess of optimism and leveraged positions among traders.

丹说：“市场不再过热。”他提到了资金率的历史，尤其是在2024年3月和11月在2024年3月的0.1以上时。在那段时间后，市场经历了迅速的回调，暗示了交易者之间的乐观和杠杆率过高。

However, the funding rate has stayed at a calm level, remaining below 0.01 for the past three months despite Bitcoin trading close to recent highs. This pattern suggests that traders are approaching the market with less extreme confidence and are not taking on overly risky positions.

但是，尽管比特币交易接近最近的高点，但在过去三个月中，过去三个月的资金率一直保持在平静的水平。这种模式表明，贸易商正在以较不极端的信心接近市场，并且没有承担过度风险的职位。

As Bitcoin hovers at a key price point, the next move will decide whether it continues the long-term trend or sparks a new one.

随着比特币悬停在关键价格点上，下一步将决定它是延续长期趋势还是引发新的趋势。