加密公牛跑，山寨幣季節和動力增長：我們到了嗎？

比特幣的新高點標誌著公牛的奔跑，但替代幣季節的確認正在審理中。流動性提升和ETH/BTC比率為希望提供了希望，但耐心是關鍵。

Crypto Bull Run, Altcoin Season, and Momentum Gains: Are We There Yet?

加密公牛跑，山寨幣季節和動力增長：我們到了嗎？

The crypto market is buzzing! Bitcoin's been tearing it up, hitting new all-time highs, and everyone's whispering about altcoin season and those sweet, sweet momentum gains. But are we really there yet? Let's dive in.

加密市場正在嗡嗡作響！比特幣一直在撕毀它，達到了新的歷史最高點，每個人都對山寨幣季節以及那些甜美，甜美的動力增長。但是我們真的在那裡嗎？讓我們潛水。

Bitcoin's Breakout: A New Bull Cycle?

比特幣的突破：一個新的公牛週期？

Bitcoin has officially smashed past $118,000, reaching a new all-time high. Virtual Bacon, a well-known crypto analyst, believes this marks the beginning of a major bull cycle. Historically, Bitcoin leads the charge in the early stages, with altcoins following as liquidity shifts. This breakout confirms the beginning of a new cycle, but it's not a free pass to go all-in on just any crypto.

比特幣已正式砸碎了118,000美元，達到了新的高潮。著名的加密分析師Virtual Bacon認為這標誌著主要牛週期的開始。從歷史上看，比特幣在早期階段領導了指控，隨著流動性的轉移，山寨幣的指控。這次突破證實了一個新周期的開始，但是只能在任何加密貨幣上全力以赴。

Altcoin Season: Close, But No Cigar (Yet)

Altcoin季節：關閉，但還沒有雪茄（尚未）

While Bitcoin's dominance has dipped slightly, it's not the all-clear for altcoins just yet. Keep a close eye on the ETH/BTC ratio, as strength in Ethereum (and Solana) can signal a rotation. But don't jump the gun! We need more confirmation before declaring a full-blown altcoin season.

雖然比特幣的主導地位略有下降，但目前尚不清楚Altcoins的全明確。密切關注ETH/BTC的比率，因為以太坊（和Solana）的強度可以發出旋轉的信號。但是不要跳槍！在宣布成熟的Altcoin賽季之前，我們需要更多的確認。

The Fed's Quiet Hand: Liquidity Injections

美聯儲安靜的手：流動性注射

The Federal Reserve is playing a sneaky game, quietly injecting liquidity into the markets. These actions boost bank reserves, allowing for more lending and increasing overall financial liquidity. Plus, the Global Liquidity Index is showing promising signs. If it breaks above previous highs, that's another green light for altseason.

美聯儲正在玩偷偷摸摸的遊戲，將流動性悄悄地註入市場。這些行動促進了銀行儲備，從而增加了更多的貸款並增加了整體財務流動性。另外，全球流動性指數顯示出有希望的跡象。如果它超過了以前的高點，那將是Altseason的另一個綠燈。

Technical Signals and Macro Conditions

技術信號和宏觀條件

Kevin, known as @Kev_Capital_TA online, pointed to Tether dominance (USDT.D) as a key indicator. He argued that a drop to 3.70 percent in USDT.D is necessary for a sustainable rally in risk assets. He also highlighted Bitcoin's hash-ribbon indicator, linking on-chain data to macro conditions like inflation. If “Truthflation” stays below 2 percent, easing policies are likely, further fueling the bull run.

凱文（Kevin）被稱為@kev_capital_ta Online，指出Tether Dominance（USDT.D）是關鍵指標。他辯稱，對於可持續的風險資產集會而言，必須降至3.70％。他還強調了比特幣的哈希 - 絲帶指標，將鏈上數據與宏觀條件等通貨膨脹聯繫起來。如果“真相”保持在2％以下，則可能會放鬆政策，從而進一步加劇了公牛的運行。

The Altcoin Rotation Thesis

altcoin旋轉論文

Ethereum's market share is showing signs of recovery, with monthly MACD, Stochastic RSI, and Market Cipher signals turning up. Early gains in ETH-beta names like Chainlink and Uniswap suggest the beginning of a broader altcoin run. However, Kevin warns against waiting for official confirmation from central banks; the market will sniff out rate cuts before they are announced.

以太坊的市場份額顯示出恢復的跡象，每月MACD，隨機RSI和市場密碼信號正在出現。 ETH-BETA名稱（例如ChainLink和Uniswap）的早期收益表明，更廣泛的Altcoin運行開始。但是，凱文警告不要等待中央銀行的官方確認；市場將在宣布之前忽略降低利率。

What to Watch For: Confirmation is Key

要注意的是：確認是關鍵

Before diving headfirst into altcoins, wait for confirmation. This includes:

在首先潛入山寨幣之前，請等待確認。這包括：

• A sustained drop in Bitcoin dominance.
• Continued strength in ETH/BTC and other major altcoin pairs.
• Breakthroughs in the Global Liquidity Index.

Analysts also point to technical factors like the monthly RSI on Bitcoin dominance, MACD crossovers, and breaks of key support lines as signs of a potential altcoin season.

分析師還指出了技術因素，例如關於比特幣優勢，MACD交叉和關鍵支撐線斷裂的每月RSI，這是潛在的AltCoin季節的跡象。

Personal Perspective

個人觀點

While the allure of quick gains in altcoins is tempting, patience is paramount. I'm keeping a close eye on those macro indicators and waiting for that sweet, sweet confirmation before making any major moves. Remember, slow and steady wins the race (or at least avoids getting rekt).

雖然Altcoins快速收益的誘惑是誘人的，但耐心至關重要。我密切關注那些宏觀指示器，並在進行任何重大動作之前等待甜蜜的甜蜜確認。請記住，緩慢而穩定會贏得比賽（或至少避免獲得REKT）。

The Bottom Line

底線

Bitcoin is shining, and altcoins are showing promise, but proceed with caution. Don't FOMO into low-cap coins based on hype. Stick to large-cap coins showing early strength, keep an eye on those macro signals, and remember, a little patience can save you a whole lot of heartache. The real bull run *might* be here, but let's make sure we're not just seeing things through rose-colored glasses!

比特幣閃閃發光，山寨幣表現出希望，但要謹慎行事。不要基於炒作將低量表硬幣變成低位硬幣。堅持使用早期強度的大型硬幣，密切注意那些宏觀信號，並記住，一點耐心可以為您節省很多心痛。真正的公牛可能會在這裡 *，但請確保我們不僅僅是通過玫瑰色眼鏡看到東西！

So, buckle up, crypto fam! It's gonna be a wild ride. Let's hope we all make it to the moon in one piece! 😉🚀

因此，扣緊，加密貨幣fam！這將是一個瘋狂的旅程。希望我們所有人都能一塊月球登上月球！ 😉🚀