隨著多個潛在湍流的閃光燈信號，比特幣進入了波動率提高的階段

儘管主要的加密貨幣最近觸及了新的高點，但加密量的數據表明，市場可能接近關鍵的拐點而不是過熱的峰值。

Bitcoin has entered a phase of heightened volatility as multiple on-chain metrics flash signals of potential turbulence. While the leading cryptocurrency recently touched new highs, data from CryptoQuant suggests that the market might be nearing a crucial inflection point rather than an overheated peak.

隨著潛在湍流的多個鏈上閃光燈信號，比特幣進入了增強波動率的階段。儘管主要的加密貨幣最近觸及了新的高點，但加密量的數據表明，市場可能接近關鍵的拐點而不是過熱的峰值。

These metrics, including Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), and the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, indicate a shift in sentiment and market conditions.

這些指標，包括未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL），對實現價值（MVRV）比率，交換流量脈衝（IFP）和牛市市場週期指標的市場價值，表明情緒和市場狀況的變化。

Do 4 Different Cyclical On-Chain Metrics Signal the End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market?

4個不同的周期性鏈指標是否表明比特幣牛市的終結？

“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term.

“所有這些指標都表明，在短期到中期，比特幣正經歷著明顯的湍流。

However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top. ”

但是，它們都沒有表明比特幣達到過熱或週期頂。透明

The NUPL indicator, which measures the proportion of market participants in profit, has been gradually declining from previous highs.

NUPL指標衡量了市場參與者在利潤中的比例，它已從以前的高點逐漸下降。

Historically, a high NUPL value suggests euphoria and potential for a market top, while a sharp decline into negative territory signals market capitulation. Currently, the indicator hovers around 0.4, a zone that historically precedes market corrections but does not confirm an immediate downturn.

從歷史上看，較高的NUPL價值表明欣快和潛力是市場頂部，而急劇下降到負領土的市場投降。目前，該指標徘徊在0.4左右，該區域歷史上是在市場校正之前進行的，但不能立即確認立即衰退。

If NUPL fails to maintain its current level, it could indicate growing risk aversion among investors.

如果NUPL無法維持其當前水平，它可能表明投資者之間的風險規避不斷增長。

MHRV Is Still in Neutral Levels

MHRV仍處於中立水平

The MVRV Ratio, which compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, has also shown signs of moderation.

將比特幣的市場價值與已實現價值進行比較的MVRV比率也顯示了節制的跡象。

Currently sitting at approximately 1.9, this metric is far from the euphoric levels seen in previous cycle tops above 3.5. This suggests that while Bitcoin may be experiencing local price peaks, it has not yet reached the extreme overvaluation levels that typically signal a final bull run climax.

目前，該指標目前約為1.9，遠離以前週期中高於3.5的欣快水平。這表明，雖然比特幣可能正在經歷當地價格峰值，但尚未達到通常表明最終牛市高潮的極端高估水平。

Nonetheless, any further sharp rises in MHRV could indicate growing speculative excess and a potential correction.

儘管如此，MHRV的任何進一步急劇上升都可能表明投機性過剩和潛在的校正。

IFP & Cycle Indicators Signal Market Shift

IFP和周期指標信號市場轉移

The IFP metric, which tracks the net flow of Bitcoin between exchanges, has also provided significant insights. Recent data shows an increase in exchange inflows, often associated with selling pressure.

在交換之間跟踪比特幣淨流的IFP度量也提供了重要的見解。最近的數據顯示，交換流入的增加，通常與銷售壓力有關。

Periods of high IFP values have historically aligned with market corrections, as traders move assets onto exchanges to take profits. While IFP is not yet at extreme levels, continued increases could indicate an approaching sell-off phase, especially if large holders begin to offload their positions.

IFP值高的時期在歷史上與市場校正保持一致，因為交易者將資產轉移到交易所以獲利。儘管IFP尚未處於極端水平，但持續增加可能表明即將出現的拋售階段，尤其是如果大型持有人開始卸載其頭寸。

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which synthesizes various on-chain and market sentiment metrics, presents a more complex picture.

牛公牛市場週期指標綜合了各種鏈上和市場情感指標，它提出了更複雜的情況。

While it has entered an early bullish phase, it has not yet reached the overheated territory seen in previous cycle tops. This suggests that Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure but is at risk of temporary corrections.

儘管它進入了早期的看漲階段，但尚未達到以前週期頂部中看到的過熱領土。這表明比特幣仍處於看漲的結構中，但有暫時更正的風險。

Historically, past bull markets have shown prolonged periods of extreme bullishness before reaching a definitive peak, and current conditions suggest that Bitcoin is not yet at that stage.

從歷史上看，過去的牛市在達到明確的高峰之前已經表現出了很長時間的極端看漲時期，而當前的條件表明比特幣還沒有處於那個階段。

This current setup bears similarities to Bitcoin's past bull market transitions. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced multiple short-term corrections before reaching its final peak.

當前的設置與比特幣過去的牛市過渡相似。在2017年和2021年，比特幣在達到最終高峰之前經歷了多次短期校正。

However, unlike those cycles, the macroeconomic environment in 2024 is markedly different. Factors such as global liquidity tightening, regulatory developments, and institutional involvement in Bitcoin could play a critical role in shaping its next move.

但是，與這些週期不同，2024年的宏觀經濟環境明顯不同。諸如全球流動性收緊，監管發展和機構參與比特幣等因素可能在塑造其下一步行動中發揮關鍵作用。

Recent comparisons have been drawn to the carry trade crisis of August 2024, when macroeconomic pressures led to a temporary decline in Bitcoin's price despite strong fundamentals. If similar external pressures emerge, they could accelerate Bitcoin's next correction phase.

最近的比較與2024年8月的貿易危機進行了比較，當時宏觀經濟壓力導致儘管基本面強勁，比特幣的價格暫時下降。如果出現類似的外部壓力，它們可以加速比特幣的下一個校正階段。