比特幣（BTC）的價格保持其看漲勢頭，但情緒指標表明市場可能過熱

比特幣的價格保持了看漲的勢頭，但情緒指標表明市場可能過熱。數據突出顯示比特幣交易者以利潤為單位，而偏見的市場傾向於渴望。

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

Bitcoin price maintains its bullish momentum, but a sentiment indicator suggests the market could be getting hot.

比特幣的價格保持了看漲的勢頭，但情緒指標表明市場可能越來越熱。

Data highlights Bitcoin traders taking profits and a lopsided market angled toward longs.

數據突出顯示比特幣交易者以利潤為單位，而偏見的市場傾向於渴望。

Analysts highlight a potential short-term correction, especially if gold weakens or considering seasonality trends.

分析師強調了潛在的短期校正，尤其是當黃金削弱或考慮季節性趨勢時。

Optimism has returned to the crypto market as many traders believe Bitcoin (BTC) price is now en route to a new all-time high. In just one month, Bitcoin surged 39%, briefly crossing the $105,000 mark. According to Glassnode analysts, “there are signs of renewed market strength, and the market is trading within a profit-dominated regime.”

由於許多交易者認為比特幣（BTC）價格現在已經達到了新的歷史最高水平，因此樂觀恢復了加密市場。在短短一個月內，比特幣飆升了39％，短暫地超越了105,000美元。根據GlassNode分析師的說法，“有新的市場實力的跡象，市場正在以利潤為主的政權範圍內進行交易。”

Still, some investors are already taking profits, pushing Bitcoin’s realized cap to an all-time high of $889 billion. Even more profit-taking is expected at the $106,000 level.

儘管如此，一些投資者已經在獲利，將比特幣的實現上限提高到了8.89億美元的歷史最高點。預計將在106,000美元的水平上獲得更多的利潤。

Historically, euphoric market sentiment has often led to periods of consolidation—or even sharp corrections. That risk may be growing, particularly as gold, whose price action Bitcoin has closely mirrored in recent months, is showing signs of fatigue and could be heading for a correction itself.

從歷史上看，欣快的市場情緒通常導致了鞏固時期，甚至徹底的糾正。這種風險可能正在增長，尤其是因為黃金近幾個月來的價格動作比特幣緊密反映了黃金，這表現出疲勞的跡象，並且可能正採取更正。

Most investors are back in profit

大多數投資者都回來了

The recent Bitcoin rally has returned over 3 million BTC to a profitable state, according to Glassnode. This shift has reignited capital inflows, which exceeded $1 billion per day, suggesting strong demand-side interest and a market capable of absorbing selling pressure. Even most short-term holders who were underwater since the December 2024 peak have seen their portfolios turn green.

據GlassNode稱，最近的比特幣集會已將超過300萬BTC恢復到一個有利可圖的狀態。這種轉變重新點燃了每天超過10億美元的資本流入，這表明需求方面的利息和能夠吸收銷售壓力的市場。自2024年12月峰以來，甚至大多數在水下的短期持有人都看到他們的投資組合變成了綠色。

This financial and psychological relief is already translating into spending behavior. The net difference between short-term holders’ transfer volume in profit vs. at a loss has swung sharply to +20%—a notable reversal from the -20% seen during the capitulation phase at the end of April.

這種財務和心理救濟已經轉化為支出行為。短期持有人在利潤中的轉移量與以損失的損失急劇下降到 +20％之間的淨差異 - 顯著逆轉了4月底的投降階段的-20％。

Credit: Glassnode

學分：玻璃節

Institutional investor confidence is also rebounding. Over the past three weeks, more than $5.7 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, according to CoinGlass. The total assets under management held within the U.S. spot ETFs have now climbed to over 1.26 million BTC, a new all-time high.

機構投資者的信心也在反彈。根據Coinglass的說法，在過去的三周中，超過57億美元流入了比特幣ETF。現在，美國ETF境內持有的管理總資產已經攀升至超過126萬BTC，這是一個新的歷史最高水平。

Is crypto trader sentiment too euphoric right now?

加密交易者情緒現在是否也很欣喜？

With so much momentum, it’s easy to imagine a moonshot. But that same momentum may be cause for caution. BTC’s open interest has climbed to $68 billion, nearly an all-time high, suggesting a heavily positioned market. In such conditions, even a small catalyst could spark an outsized move—up or down.

有瞭如此多的動力，很容易想像一個月球。但是同樣的勢頭可能會引起謹慎。 BTC的開放興趣已攀升至680億美元，幾乎是歷史最高的，這表明市場位置很大。在這種情況下，即使是小型催化劑也可能會引發一個超大的動作，或者下降。

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, warns that Bitcoin might be getting a bit ahead of itself. He recently shared Bitwise’s internal Cryptoasset Sentiment Index, which has reached its highest level since November 2024. The index, which includes 15 sub-indicators spanning sentiment, flows, onchain data, and derivatives (such as the perpetual funding rate and put-call volume ratio), now shows an overheated market.

Bitwise Asset Management研究負責人AndréDragosch警告說，比特幣可能會有所領先。他最近分享了Bitwise的內部加密情緒指數，該指數已達到自2024年11月以來的最高水平。該指數包括15個子指標，涉及情緒，流量，OnChain數據和衍生品（例如永久融資率和Put-all-Pall批量比率），現在顯示出過度燃燒的市場。

In his own comments to Dragosch, who is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg, adds that he remains “structurally constructive” on cryptocurrencies until the end of 2025. He names the ongoing accumulation of BTC by corporations and ETPs, which continues to deplete Bitcoin on-exchange balances despite the recent price rally.

在他對彭博經常貢獻者的Dragosch的評論中，他補充說，直到2025年底，他仍然在加密貨幣上“在結構上具有建設性”。他列舉了公司和ETP的BTC持續積累，儘管儘管最近的價格集合了最近的價格，但該公司仍繼續耗盡比特幣餘額。

Potential crypto market headwinds

潛在的加密市場逆風

Several risks could challenge Bitcoin in the short term.

短期內，幾種風險可能會挑戰比特幣。

For Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, renewed regulatory uncertainty is a top concern, especially after the Senate stalled stablecoin legislation last week.

對於Bitwise首席投資官Matt Hougan來說，更新的監管不確定性是最關心的問題，尤其是在參議院上週停滯的Stablecoin立法之後。

Broader shifts in market behavior may also be at play. Since March 2025, Bitcoin has shown a stronger correlation with gold than with equities. That shift followed dramatic changes in U.S. policy, which appeared to capital into politically neutral assets: both Bitcoin and gold rose 22% (the latter since corrected to a 13% gain). At the same time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 merely clawed back earlier losses.

市場行為的更廣泛轉變也可能正在發揮作用。自2025年3月以來，比特幣與黃金的相關性比與股票更強。這一轉變是在美國政策發生巨大變化之後，這些政策似乎歸入政治中立的資產：比特幣和黃金上漲了22％（後者自從糾正至13％的收益）。同時，標準普爾500指數和NASDAQ-100僅降低了較早的損失。

This divergence continues on shorter time frames. Since May 12, major U.S. indexes gained 3% to 4% on positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations, but Bitcoin barely budged. Meanwhile, gold has started printing lower highs—an early signal of a downtrend, as noted by analyst Michael Van de Poppe. If gold enters a corrective phase, Bitcoin might follow suit.

這種分歧在較短的時間範圍內繼續。自5月12日以來，美國少校指數在美國 - 中國貿易關係的積極發展方面上漲了3％至4％，但比特幣幾乎沒有興起。同時，正如分析師邁克爾·範·德·波普（Michael van de Poppe）指出的那樣，黃金已經開始打印較低的高點，這是下降趨勢的早期信號。如果黃金進入糾正階段，則比特幣可能會效仿。

Finally, seasonality may play a role. The adage “Sell in May and go away” has some historical backing. As analyst Daan Crypto Trades notes, May has typically been a green month for Bitcoin (averaging over 8%), while June and September are often the worst-performing months.

最後，季節性可能起作用。格言“五月份出售”有一些歷史支持。正如分析師Daan Crypto Trades指出的那樣，梅通常是比特幣的綠色月（平均8％），而六月和9月通常是表現最差的月份。

“People like to say that technical analysis doesn't work in bear markets and fundamental

人們喜歡說技術分析在熊市和基本