比特幣（BTC）NVT比率超過2xSD，市場觀察者將目光轉向鏈信號

一位著名的加密分析師Burak Kesmeci最近在X上發布了有關比特幣高級網絡價值（NVT）度量標準的峰值。

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding strong above the $100,000 mark after a robust weekly climb, with analysts now turning their attention to on-chain signals that could change the course of its price movement.

每週穩定的攀登之後，比特幣（BTC）的強勁表現高於100,000美元，分析師現在將注意力轉向可能改變其價格變動的鍊鍊信號。

Bitcoin Advanced NVT Surges Past 2xSD

比特幣高級NVT超過2xSD

比特幣高級NVT超過2xSD

A well-known crypto analyst, Burak Kesmeci, recently posted on X about a spike in the Bitcoin Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) metric. The Advanced NVT is now sitting above a key threshold that often signals major price moves. This could mean Bitcoin is either preparing for a large price rally or facing a major correction.

一位著名的加密分析師Burak Kesmeci最近在X上發布了有關比特幣高級網絡價值（NVT）度量標準的峰值。高級NVT現在正坐在關鍵閾值之上，這通常標誌著主要價格轉移。這可能意味著比特幣要么為大型價格集會做準備，要么面臨重大糾正。

Bitcoin's Advanced NVT has again moved past the 2xSD level.

比特幣的高級NVT再次超過了2XSD級別。

Usually, it doesn't stay at this level for long, and often appears right before a steep upward or downward movement.

通常，它不會長時間保持這種水平，並且經常出現在向上或向下移動之前。

During the ETF rally, NVT surged well beyond 4xSD levels. However, with a parabolic rally, it is… pic.buffer.cc/G7R3nB7DqI

在ETF拉力賽期間，NVT急劇上升到4xSD的水平上。但是，隨著拋物線集會，它是…pic.buffer.cc/g7r3nb7dqi

— burak kesmeci (@burak_kesmeci) September 24, 2024

-Burak Kesmeci（@burak_kesmeci）2024年9月24日

The Advanced NVT is an updated and more sophisticated iteration of the original NVT indicator, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market cap and its daily blockchain transaction volume in dollars. When the Advanced NVT rises above its long-term moving average by over two standard deviations (2xSD), it indicates that the cryptocurrency's value is growing faster than the activity on its blockchain. In the past, this mismatch has led to either sharp rallies or steep corrections in Bitcoin's price.

Advanced NVT是原始NVT指標的更新且更複雜的迭代，該指標衡量了比特幣的市值與每日區塊鏈交易量（以美元）之間的關係。當高級NVT上升到其長期移動平均線以上時，超過兩個標準偏差（2xSD）時，這表明加密貨幣的值的增長速度快於其區塊鏈上的活動。過去，這種不匹配導致了急劇的集會或比特幣價格陡峭的校正。

Kesmeci noted that Bitcoin's Advanced NVT has once again moved past the 2xSD level. While this level doesn't usually sustain for extended periods, it often appears shortly before a substantial upward or downward movement in price. During the ETF rally, NVT surged to levels well beyond 4xSD as Bitcoin experienced a rapid price increase.

Kesmeci指出，比特幣的高級NVT再次超過了2XSD級別。儘管此水平通常不長期存在，但通常不久才出現在價格上漲或向下的價格下降之前。在ETF集會期間，隨著比特幣的價格快速上漲，NVT飆升至4xSD的水平。

However, with a parabolic rally, it could move much higher than 4xSD. This has happened before with the ETF rally after the approval of Spot ETFs.

但是，在拋物線集會的情況下，它的移動可能高於4xSD。在批准現場ETF之後，ETF集會以前發生了。

But, staying above this level might be unusual, and it doesn't necessarily mean it must fall back. Bitcoin could remain at this level if the market continues its bullish momentum.

但是，保持高於此級別可能是不尋常的，這並不一定意味著它必須退縮。如果市場繼續其看漲勢頭，則比特幣可能會保持在這個水平。

Stable Funding Rate Indicates Calm Climb AHead?

穩定的融資率表明鎮定攀登？

穩定的融資率表明鎮定攀登？

Another voice in the crypto space, CryptoQuant's analyst Crypto Dan, added to the discussion by examining another signal: the Bitcoin funding rate. This tool helps determine when traders are leaning too heavily in one direction, which can then factor into market shifts.

加密貨幣空間中的另一個聲音是加密貨幣的分析師加密丹（Crypto Dan），通過檢查另一個信號：比特幣融資率。該工具有助於確定交易者何時朝著一個方向傾斜，這可能會導致市場轉變。

According to Dan, the funding rate is now stable and well below the danger zone.

根據丹的說法，現在的資金率穩定，遠低於危險區域。

The Market is No Longer Overheated.

市場不再過熱。

✍️ In March and November 2024, when the Bitcoin funding rate remained above 0.1, the market quickly pulled back after those periods. This signaled that traders were too optimistic and leveraged.

✍️在2024年3月和11月，當比特幣融資率保持在0.1以上時，在那段時間之後，市場迅速退縮。這表明交易者過於樂觀和利用。

Now, the funding rate has stayed below 0.01 for… pic.twitter.com/uR2zM81L7v

現在，用於…pic.twitter.com/UR2ZM81L7V的資金率一直保持在0.01以下

— CryptoQuant Analyst Dan (@quant_analyst) September 24, 2024

- 2024年9月24日

"The Market is No Longer Overheated," stated Dan. He referenced the funding rate's history, especially when it remained above 0.1 during March and November 2024. During those times, the market experienced a swift pullback after those periods, hinting at an excess of optimism and leveraged positions among traders.

丹說：“市場不再過熱。”他提到了資金率的歷史，尤其是在2024年3月和11月在2024年3月的0.1以上時。在那段時間後，市場經歷了迅速的回調，暗示了交易者之間的樂觀和槓桿率過高。

However, the funding rate has stayed at a calm level, remaining below 0.01 for the past three months despite Bitcoin trading close to recent highs. This pattern suggests that traders are approaching the market with less extreme confidence and are not taking on overly risky positions.

但是，儘管比特幣交易接近最近的高點，但在過去三個月中，過去三個月的資金率一直保持在平靜的水平。這種模式表明，貿易商正在以較不極端的信心接近市場，並且沒有承擔過度風險的職位。

As Bitcoin hovers at a key price point, the next move will decide whether it continues the long-term trend or sparks a new one.

隨著比特幣懸停在關鍵價格點上，下一步將決定它是延續長期趨勢還是引發新的趨勢。